Who To Draft and Who Not To Draft

I’ve found through the years that NBA Mock Drafts are among the most fruitless of pursuits. Of the big 4 drafts, none is more prone to dynamic draft-day deals, random dropping of bona fide stars, or mind-bottling reaches (although that may be less of an issue with Isaiah Thomas not in the NBA). So, what I’m going to do to preview Thursday’s draft is identify the players I feel will be the biggest steals of the draft, and the biggest busts.

Steals:

1) Tyreke Evans-PG-Memphis

After Blake Griffin, Evans will be the best player out of the class of 2009. If anything has been proven recently, it’s that the league is being driven by PGs who can contribute in every facet of the game, especially driving to the rim. Evans showed in his one year that he could handle PG responsibilities while being a dominant physical presence at the point. I believe he will make an immediate impact as a rookie, on his way to becoming an All-Star.

2) Sam Young-SF-Pittsburgh

The only thing keeping Sam Young near the bottom of the first round is a “lack of upside” and being 24. But, Young showed tremendous heart and determination in coming back from major knee surgery to lead Pitt into the Elite Eight, averaging 23PPG and 7RPG in the tourney. He improved every year in school, is a great shooter and could become an outstanding defensive player as well. Whoever Young falls to, he should develop into a solid double-digit scorer if he stays healthy.

3) Jodie Meeks-SG-Kentucky

While some question his decision to leave Kentucky early, Jodie Meeks could certainly be an early second round steal for a lucky NBA team. Anyone who can drop 54 points in the SEC and set a school record at Kentucky is a legit scorer. Shooting is always a need for teams and Meeks has proven to be lethal (40% 3pt, 90% FT) while showing NBA range from deep. He’s also gotten better at creating his own shot and could easily become this year’s Michael Redd.

Busts:

1) James Harden-SG-Arizona State

Honestly, whenever I watched James Harden play, I couldn’t understand how this guy was an All-American. To me, he’s too slow for the NBA, doesn’t have a great jump shot, and will struggle against more athletic defenders. His 19 points in two NCAA tourney games was certainly stunning for the Pac-10’s leading scorer, and not in a good way. For a player likely to be picked in the top 6, I think he will have a rather uneventful NBA career.

2) B.J. Mullens-C-Ohio State

If this trend keeps up, Ohio State will develop a reputation as 7-Foot-Stiff University. Greg Oden’s ceiling has gone from Patrick Ewing to Emeka Okafor to Erick Dampier. Kosta Koufos, drafted last year by Utah, spent most of his rookie year in the NBDL and isn’t on the fast track to the Jazz’s starting lineup any time soon. Mullens lacked passion at Ohio State, had no offensive repertoire, and showed little to qualify him as an NBA talent except his size. How many double doubles do you think Mullens had last year as one of the only 7-footers in the Big Ten…four, five? Try one, when he scored 11 points with 11 boards at Northwestern. I don’t expect him to increase his double doubles by much at the next level.

3) Stephen Curry-PG-Davidson

This may sound sacrilegious, especially with the way Curry has captivated the sports world over the past two years, but I wasn’t impressed by his PG play last year. Granted he didn’t have the best supporting cast, but he seemed to struggle with his shot from the point against tougher competition outside the Southern Conference. To me, he plays smaller than his 6-3 listing suggests and will struggle to finish in the paint at the next level. While he is an amazing shooter and could develop better PG skills, I just don’t see him succeeding at the level most expect. I hope I’m wrong, but I view him as more of an undersized 2-guard coming off the bench who will struggle defensively against bigger guards.