2010: The Year of Huh?! in Baseball

I have to say that 2010 has been one of the most unusual years for Major League Baseball. From the perfect games, no hitters, records and some odd firsts, MLB surely has been intriguing for a Reds-aholic like myself to watch. Here are some oddities that have occurred so far in this young season:

1. 4 No Hitters & 2 Perfect Games.

-If you have lived under a rock for the start of this season, think you could name the pitchers who have achieved these feats? I'll spot you 1 in Halladay, but who would have thought of the other 3. Tim Lincecum? Nope. Johan Santana? Try again. Cliff Lee? So sad, too bad, bye bye. Try Ubaldo Jimenez, Dallas Braden, and Edwin Jackson. Heading into the season you would have asked - who? Only Jimenez and Halladay have kept up the run of success since their achievements. Jackson has yet to pitch again since his weekend no-no, but after 149 pitches I think he'll get some deserved rest. Incidentally, since Braden's perefecto on May 9 he has yet to record a win and has lost 5 of those 8 contests. There have been an increasing number of perfect games thrown in past seasons but 4 in a span of 9-10 weeks? It seems like a weird statistical anomaly, doesn't it...

2. Power outage

...until, you look behind the numbers. Not until this weekend did a batter achieve 20 HR's until Toronto's Jose Bautista blast on Saturday. Say what?!! Not until June 26 did a batter hit 20 HRs? I remember the days of McGwire, Sosa and Bonds all having 30+ by this point in the season easily. The cause of this? I'd lie if I said the stringent drug policy didn't have something to do with it. The evidence speaks for itself. The most home runs hit since Bond's record season of 2001 has been 58 blasts by Ryan Howard of Philadelphia. The average power numbers have hovered around 40-50 homers for the top sluggers of the post-steroidal era. Baseball has returned to a scene of normalcy and the end of the super-human jacked up era is upon us. For a fan like me, the long ball is nice to see but the game seems to be back to its purest and truest form.

To me, the rise of pitching and the declining of power numbers tend to point to one thing as I pointed out in relation to hitting - drug testing. It would be wrong to not find some relation with 1) the decline of power numbers, 2) the rise of no-hitters and perfect games, 3) the involvement of the Mitchell Report, 4) Juiced and 5) better drug testing. Players who in the past may have entertained the thought of using some steriods or PEDs have stopped that train of thought. Players are staying away from anything that could trigger that positive test, and for a moderate purist like myself, this is good to see.

****Y1 here. As the math guy at RSS I thought I would insert some more numbers to take a look at the rise of perfect games & no-nos the past few years and back up Brother Yohey's claims. I promise it'll be the most fun you've had on a sports blog in the past 3 minutes!

There has been a slight rise of no-nos since the stricter drug policy was enforced in 2006. 7 no-hitters from 2000-2005 and 11 from 2006-2010. But the rise in perfect games is more fascinating...

PERFECT GAMES

-20 in history: 3 in the past year (Halladay & Braden 5/10, Buehrle 7/09) and 2 in the past 2 months... and think this is without the Armando Galarraga saga! The previous time standard for 3 perfect games was just under 4 years from Jim Bunning 6/64 to Catfish Hunter 5/68. The standard for 4 perfect games aside from this recent stretch of games is 8 years from Dennis Martinez 7/91 to David Cone 7/98!

With just some quick math we can see how insane the rise in perfect games is this season. 20 perfect games over the course of 140ish years means an average of about 1 every 7 years (sure you can be more exact with expansion, more games played, etc, but this is a sports blog not Harvard and it's 1:00 AM). With 30 teams playing 162 games, that's 4,860 games in a season. That boils down to roughly 1 perfect game out of every 34,020 (30 x 162 x 7). So if 1 of those 4,860 games is perfect that means there's about a 14.28 % chance of a perfect game happening in any given year. Seeing three happen in a calendar year means multiplying that 14% chance together three times... (.1428)^3 = .29% chance of seeing that happen! Basically, what has happened the past calendar year has a 3 in 1000 chance of taking place.

Just for fun, let's play a competent MLB Commish and give Galarraga his perfect game. That would be 3 perfect games in approximately a month. So we've cut our 4,860 games pool down to 810 games pitched in a month to draw the perfect game. Doing the same math we find the odds of 3 perfect games in a month to be 0.00001.3487... or 1 in 100,000 - once every 16,667 seasons! Simply amazing!****

A a few quick hits on some other oddities:

-First place Cincinnati Reds: Who would've thought a team who has enjoyed 10 straight losing seasons would be 1/2 game on top of the perennial NL Central powerhouse St. Louis? Honestly not me but after watching nearly every game, I can see why. A starting staff led by rookie Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto have put up great numbers so far this season and the bullpen, led by shoe-in All-Star Arthur Rhodes, have put together some nice numbers. The offense? Only the top in the NL statistically, led by Votto, Gomes, Rolen and Brandon Phillips. They are a great group to watch night in and night out.

-Trade market: It will be interesting to see the movement of players this season. Once thought the jewel of the trade market, now Cliff Lee may not be going anywhere with the resurgent play of the Mariners. That would be a big hit to a team close to contention wanting to add a piece. Who will be the first team to bite? Should be interesting to see as we may not see the traditional buyers and sellers at work this time of year.

-Carlos Zambrano being Carlos Zambrano: Never before have I see a more prima donna player in the majors than Big Z. The Cubs have a lot of money invested in him, but his antics have to be getting old to his teammates, Cubbie management, as well as fans (right Y2?). Coupled with that, does Piniella like it when a player is a bigger hot head than himself??

So after a long absence from RSS I have returned and levied my MLB thoughts on the world. It should definetly be interesting to see how things pan out over the next few weeks before the All-Star break. Make sure to check back around the break to see the mid-season awards and fearless predictions from yours truly, the Irrational and Insane Brother Yohey. Be careful out there!!