Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts

Monday, July 5, 2010

World Cup Semifinal Predictions

4 teams remain in the 2010 World Cup, but only 1 can be etched into the history books forever as champion. One matchup features 2 of the soccer world's biggest powers in a rematch of the Euro 2008 Final (Spain v Germany) while the other features two teams that have had their day at or near the top of world soccer looking to reach a surprising final (Uruguay v Netherlands). Let's break it down and see who'll play in Soccer City July 11 for the World Cup!

Semifinal #1
Netherlands v Uruguay
All time WC record: 2nd Meeting (Series 1-0 Netherlands W 1974 Group Stage)
Netherlands WC History: 3rd Final 4 appearance, 2 final appearances, 0 wins
Netherlands Player to Watch: Midfielder Wesley Sneijder scored 2 goals against Brazil to take his tally to 4 for the tournament
Uruguay WC History: 2 time champions ('30, '50), 4th SF appearance
Uruguay Player to Watch: Without Luis Suarez, Diego Forlan will have to do the creating and finishing for Uruguay to advance
Breakdown:
-Luis Suarez's handball on the line against Ghana may have saved their tournament and cost them a shot at the final at the same time. Suarez is a huge loss for Uruguay - he's been perhaps the most valuable player for any team at this World Cup thus far. Also, captain and center back Diego Lugano might be an injury concern after having to leave the QF early on. So, Uruguay are faced with a major injury crisis. I will expect them to respond with a gameplan similar to how they played France in the opening game of the tournament. Defend. Defend. Defend. Uruguay will pack the back, crowd out Van Persie and Sneijder, and hope to frustrate the Dutch. Maybe they'll get a goal on the counter, but they're just as likely to be happy going to penalties 0-0.

For the Dutch, that means they will have to be extra creative in the final third. I don't know if they have that ability - frankly, their play has been fairly predictable in attack. Sneijder found little room to work against Brazil and scored his two goals rather fortuitously from set pieces. Then with Arjen Robben, the left footer playing on the right wing, constantly cutting inside the Dutch have little width and crowd the middle of the pitch. That would play right into a compact Uruguay defense. I think we'll see a game very similar to Spain v Paraguay in the quarters with the Netherlands dominating possession and territory. They may scrap a goal somewhere along the line, but I could see this going all the way to penalties also.
PICK: Netherlands 1 Uruguay 0

Semifinal #2
Germany v Spain
All time WC record: 4th Meeting (Germany leads series 2-0-1) Germany W 1966 Group Stage, 1982 2nd Round, Draw 1994 Group Stage
Germany WC History: 3 time champions ('54, '74, '90), 12th Final 4 appearance and 3rd straight semifinal
Germany Player to Watch: Striker Miroslav Klose needs 1 goal to tie Ronaldo for the most World Cup goals of all-time
Spain WC History: 2nd SF Appearnce (1950), most WC victories without a title
Spain Player to Watch: David Villa is the tourney's top scorer with 5 goals but watch the Barcelona central defense pairing of Puyol and Pique and how they handle the robust German attack
Breakdown:
-This will be a classic game. Finally Spain will be able to play against a side that just doesn't bunker down in defense and will find some room to operate. Vicente del Bosque came out this week in support of struggling star striker Fernando Torres , so I would expect to see him start again - especially considering he got the winning goal in the Euro 2008 Final against Germany (although I would expect him to be subbed early in the 2nd half if he's ineffective again). Spain has been the master of the 1-0 win thus far in the knockout rounds, but it will certainly take more than one goal to beat Germany Wednesday. Unlike against Argentina, Germany won't be able to dominate Spain's midfield and unlike Messi, Tevez, and Higuain in the quarters - Spain's attackers are excellent at spacing and finding gaps, especially with Villa coming in from the left. Spain should be happy to find a little more freedom to attack, but it could leave them open at the back.

However, Germany are playing so well at the moment that it's hard to see them lose, even missing young stud Thomas Muller. They should keep the same 4-2-3-1 formation with Piotr Trochowski or maybe Cacau filling in on the right wing for the suspended wunderkind. I wouldn't expect Germany to dominate Spain like England or Argentina, but they should have plenty of chances on the counterattack once again - especially on the left hand side with how much Sergio Ramos likes to get forward. Against Argentina, every goal came from the attacking left hand side! Germany's width might really expose Spain's crowded midfield (none of Busquets, Alonso, Xavi, or Iniesta are true wide midfielders) and that would really show up on the counterattack. I'm hoping for a classic and giving the slight edge to Germany because of the mojo they have going. Plus, I had Spain winning pre tournament, so really, I'll be right now either way - now that's Prognostication 101!
PICK: Germany 3 Spain 2 ET

Sunday, July 4, 2010

World Cup Quarterfinal Recap

Time for our World Cup roundup. The quarterfinals certainly presented us with games worthy of falling into World Cup lore. The Netherlands shocked Brazil. Spain snuck by Paraguay. Uruguay crushed the hopes of Africa. And, Germany made the World Cup dreams of Argentina and Diego Maradona go up in smoke!

1) Biggest Winner - Europe
-All of the talk coming into the quarterfinals was South American domination. 4 of the 5 teams reached the quarterfinals with Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay all looking to book places in the semis. It was a record number of South American teams... and a record low of European teams - just 3! Holland, Germany, and Spain. And, all of them were victorious. South American teams were only 1-3 in the QF round while Europe was a perfect 3-0. Holland was able to come back to beat Brazil in a stunner (detailed here), Spain fought like mad to break through Paraguay in a 1-0 victory, and most impressively Germany destroyed Argentina 4-0. Now, with Germany meeting Spain we'll have at least one European finalist and most likely another with the Netherlands battling Uruguay without Luis Suarez. A European team has never won a World Cup off European soil, but it's looking very likely to happen in 2010.
2) Standout Performer - A New German Golden Age
3) Highlight - German Domination
-It's almost impossible to single out one German player in their rout of Maradona's Argentina. While it's not refreshing to see Germany in a major semifinal again (their 3rd straight in a WC plus the Euro 2008 final), it is refreshing to see this German team play soccer. The young stars like Ozil, Muller, and Khedira have only lifted up the magnificent Miroslav Klose (now 1 goal shy of tying Ronaldo's all-time goal scoring record in the WC), Podolski, Schweinsteiger, Lahm, and the other veterans of the decade. As of now, they have to be considered the favorite of the Final 4 with the way they hammered Argentina 4-0. As we said before the tournament,
"Another World Cup. Another underappreciated German side. Another likely long tournament. Three things in life are certain: death, taxes, and Germany playing well in the World Cup. It always happens!"
Maybe some brilliant sociologist can study just why Germany always play so well, but for now, let's enjoy the brilliance of their play. The counterattacking displays against England and Argentina has been some of the simplest and best soccer I've ever seen. This team is a joy to watch. It's more of a joy with Legos and in German commentary...

4) Biggest Loser - Brazil
-Dunga's Brazil was the favorite going into the quarterfinals. In our QF preview, we discussed the tactical advantage that Brazil had against Holland. But, they never actually took advantage of that advantage! Maicon rarely got forward, Kaka was in and out of the game, and the rock solid defense gave up two weak goals to Wesley Sneijder (who was well marked in open play). But, the worst part of Brazil's loss was that they lost their cool - symbolized by Felipe Melo's stamp on the infuriating Arjen Robben. It was a game they could and should have won. With the 2014 Cup heading to Brazil, expect Dunga to be out as manager ***UPDATE: he was just fired*** and the soul of Brazilian football to be brought back from the iron grip of the defensive style that was supposed to win tournaments. Well, at least if they lose in 2014, they'll lose beautifully!
5) Best Game - Uruguay 1 Ghana 1 - Uruguay 4-3 on PKs
-This was a very even game that featured a lot of chances and a lot of drama. Ghana and Uruguay needed extra time to settle things and once Luis Suarez punched the ball off his own line in the last minute of extra time the game went from pretty good to the stuff of legends. The Hand of Suarez saved Uruguay because Asamoah Gyan's PK went off the bar. Uruguay survived and won on penalties to go to their first semifinal since 1970. It really has to be seen to be believed...

6) Biggest Surprise - Uruguay Remains South America's Hope?
-Who would have thunk it? Heading into the tournament, you would have been given 500-1 odds on Uruguay being the last remaining South American team. Of course, Brazil was the big surprise, but it also seemed like people fell in love with Maradona the showman and ignored his team squashing little people on their way to the quarters. They were always going to be destroyed by an equally talented German team as Zonal Marking writes:
Argentina are out in the way many expected with Maradona as manager. Early on in this tournament he seemed to be proving his doubters wrong by playing a solid team that worked well together, but everything fell apart in dramatic circumstances here today. No organisation in defence, not enough numbers in midfield, no cohesion in attack. This defeat will take a long, long time for Argentina to get over.
Paraguay was always an underdog to beat Spain and did well to only lose 1-0... although, if Cardozo's penalty would have gone in it could have been a different story. Alas, Uruguay is the last team standing and will face a huge challenge without their supremo goal scorer Suarez against Holland. It will take a defensive performance ala their 0-0 opener against France and a little bit of luck for them to stunningly make the final. But hey, who had them going this far?
7) Extra Time - Heartbreak Hotel
-Ghana's loss to Uruguay - with all of Africa rooting them on - was one of the most painful losses that I've ever seen. World Cups and Olympics and events of the same ilk are unique in that you aren't just representing your team or a fan base, but your country. In this case, Ghana was the hope of a continent. And, they were cruelly denied by a handball on the line in the dying minutes, a winning penalty off the crossbar, and a penalty shootout loss. Asamoah Gyan, the hero against the USA and the shining light of the African teams, was inconsolable after the game because of his missed penalty at the end of extra time. I can't think of a more shattering defeat. Now, Scott Norwood's plight doesn't seem so bad (sorry Bills fans). Seriously though, the visible anguish of the Ghanian team ripped out the viewers' hearts and it was a heartbreaking loss that few of us American sports fans can even imagine.