What Are The Odds - AFC/NFC South Preview

We conclude our What Are The Odds NFL Preview with a trip down South... well and to Indianapolis for a preview of the AFC & NFC South divisions. Will the Colts have one last run at glory? Who will rise from the ashes this year in the South? All I know is, as a Saints fan, I can't be happier to know I won't be seeing above image again. That's CB Jason David (thankfully shown the door this preseason) getting burned at Indy in his first game in 2007, a game I was in attendance, live and in person, it was closer than that 41-10 score... I'm still trying to get over it.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 10 Wins

Y1: Well, with the Dungy Era over, and Peyton Manning the last of the Big 3 left, this is certainly a different Colts team. The question has to be: is their window finally closing? I think it is, but it won't be shut just yet this season. They'll have just enough on D to get by, provided Bob Sanders stays healthy. But there's just enough weird stuff surrounding this franchise (OC Tom Moore coming and going) to tell me that the Colts aura is slipping. I'll push at 10, as they'll be pipped by Tennessee for South supremacy. PUSH 10

Y2: Their Super Bowl window may be closing, but I still believe they're the class of the AFC South. Former Buckeye Anthony Gonzalez is poised for a breakout season replacing Marvin Harrison as a starter. The loss of Tony Dungy will also be softened by Jim Caldwell, who seems to have much of the trademark demeanor of his predecessor. Agreed the defense will be just good enough, so I'll give them a little more credit than the 10 win line. OVER 10

Tennessee Titans - Over/Under 9 Wins

The Titans are a mystery to me for this season. Sure, they were great last year, but can they keep it up for a second year... with Kerry Collins back at QB? Smash and Dash (right) should still be able to run the ball, Keith Bulluck and the D should be stout once again, and Jeff Fisher remains one of the best coaches in the league. They'll be over 9 and compete for the division title again.OVER 9

I don't think they're a mystery, but there's no way they'll repeat the success of last season. They lost their best defensive player in Albert Haynesworth and their Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz. The Titans running game should be as stout as ever though with LenDale White getting off the Tequila Train and the explosive Chris Johnson still in the mix. I'm tempted to say push, but because of the strength of their run game, I'll give them 10 wins and a wild card birth. OVER 9

Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 8.5 Wins

The Jags are coming down this year. MoJo is going to suffer without Fred Taylor backing him up and David Garrard didn't exactly light the world on fire last year. Plus, the team's #1 receiver, Matt Jones, is gone. Coach Jack Del Rio could be finally wearing out his welcome in Jacksonville, it wouldn't surprise me to see him gone at the end of a down year. UNDER 8.5

I was surprised when I saw this over/under. This team has been under a lot of turmoil recently as you mentioned, and I don't see Del Rio coming back as coach unless he can get to the playoffs. The offense has no bona fide weapons after fantasy stud Maurice Jones-Drew and the defense has been in decline recently. This is one of the easier bets for me. UNDER 8.5

Houston Texans - Over/Under 8.5 Wins

Everyone seems to be jumping on the Texans as a sleeper team this year, but I don't see it happening yet this year. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are good, but I can't see them getting above 8 wins in this division. They'll show some promise, especially with some young stars on D (Okoye, Ryans, Super Mario), but they won't get to the postseason yet. UNDER 8.5

Is this finally the year for the Texans to make the playoffs? I say yes it is. Andre Johnson proved he's in the discussion for best receiver in the league with his consistent performance all season and Steve Slaton provided a nice boost for the ground game. Behind the steady play of a healthy Matt Schaub and an improving defense, I say they finally break the glass ceiling. OVER 8.5

NFC South

New Orleans Saints - Over/Under 9 Wins

I can't believe that my beloved Saints are the Vegas picks to win the South! They've underachieved the last 2 seasons for a number of reasons (dumb coaching decisions, lack of power running, Jason David!) but I'm hoping and praying this is finally the year. Of course, history and years of torment tell me otherwise. But, with Shockey and Colston healthy (and Bush, cross your fingers) to add to the best O in football, and Gregg Williams in to run the D, this could be the year. Of course, I've said that for all 23 years of my existence and it hasn't happened yet, but I will never pick against the Saints, it's a weakness, I know... OVER 9

I don't have such a weakness, so I will pick against the Saints. Their offense is the best in the league, without question. But, head coach Sean Payton has shown a tendency to outthink himself in pressure situations. For every team each season, there are 3-4 games that can swing either way based on one bad play call or one boneheaded defensive play. As much as I hate to say this for you, the Saints' track record shows they come out on the losing end most of the time. The defense still has questions, but I think they're one game better than last year, so I'll be brave and say PUSH 9.

Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 8.5 Wins

Carolina has to be in for a fall this year. They've had to deal with Julius Peppers all off-season, Jake Delhomme's confidence isn't necessarily at a high after that 5 INT performance at home vs the Cards last January. If they weren't big rivals of New Orleans, I would really admire the job John Fox has done in Carolina. I just can't see them getting above .500 this season. UNDER 8.5

Carolina's predicted to take a fall every year, but much like the Eagles, they find a way to win ball games. I think John Fox is one of the most underrated head coaches in the league. Jake will make enough plays/avoid making big mistakes (mostly to Steve Smith) and their running game looks to be one of the best in the league with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. They're not a Super Bowl contender, but they'll contend in the division. OVER 8.5

Atlanta Falcons - Over/Under 8.5 Wins

I'm stunned to see the Falcons at only 8.5. This is one of the easiest calls in the league. RSS favorite Matt Ryan (right) will only be better in year 2, the WR's are getting better, and the D led by John Abraham will be solid once again. They'll compete with New Orleans for the division, but the Saints will beat them out (I hope), they are good enough to get a Wild Card berth though. OVER 8.5

I'm a bit more bullish on the Falcons chances this season. Much like the Dolphins, I think teams took the Falcons for granted a lot last year. Matt Ryan could be due for a sophmore slump, and I'm not convinced Mr. Nice Guy Tony Gonzalez will make that much of an impact. With that being said, I could see this bet going either way. Since I've been optimistic in some other cases, I'll say UNDER 8.5

Tampa Bay Buccanneers - Over/Under 6 Wins

Everyone is picking Tampa Bay as one of the weaker teams in the NFL this year, with a new QB and Jon Gruden now in the MNF booth (fantastic hire btw Bristol, although I am a TK kinda guy). Derrick Brooks is gone too, but the best LB nobody knows, Barrett Ruud, is still there in Tampa. 5-11 is a bad team, and I don't think Tampa is a bad team. I'm tempted to push, but I've had enough of that. Barely over at 7. OVER 6

Y1, I think you're letting your love for the Saints affect your views of the rest of the division. Perhaps only Denver has had more upheaval in the offseason than Tampa. With a young roster, a cavalcade of retreads and rookies at QB, and a first-time head coach in Raheem Morris, there's no way the Bucs can get past 6 wins. UNDER 6