This week, for our weekly PtS feature, we'll not just look back at Week 17, but the entire NFL regular season for each team in the NFL. We'll take a look back to our original Over/Under Picks before the season even started to see how our picks fared and how each team fared in 2009. We'll start with a team-by-team look at the AFC today and the NFC to come tomorrow.
AFC East
1) New England 10-6
*Over/Under 12 Wins - UNDER
-Y1: Over Y2: Push
-What we said: "Y2: I'm not convinced the Pats will return to completely dominate the rest of the league. Any player, even Tom Brady, is a question mark coming off of major knee surgery. Not to mention, who's actually going to run the ball for this team? On defense, several of their key players are another year older.."
-What Happened: Tom Brady did come back to near his best after that devastating knee injury, but the lack of a running game and a questionable defense in big games saw them only get to 10 wins. Going into the playoffs they have the #3 seed, but this is a team that has had the look all season of being unable to recapture their elite form.
2) New York Jets 9-7
*Over/Under 7 Wins - OVER
-Y1: Under Y2: Over
-What we said: "While I'm sick of having Mark Sanchez driven down my throat, I think this team can be just as good as last year. New head coach Rob Ryan has brought in some impact players on defense with him from Baltimore (Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard, etc.), which I think will help the Jets immensely."
-What Happened: Mark Sanchez, by the numbers, had an awful season. But, it was Rex Ryan and that defense (especially legit D PoY candidate Darrelle Revis) that carried the day. They did get lucky though by waltzing into the playoffs against resting teams. They might be favored to win at Cincy in R1 of the playoffs.
3) Miami Dolphins 7-9
*Over/Under 7.5 Wins - UNDER
-Y1: Over Y2: Under
-What we said: "Y1: Sure, the Wildcat might not fool everyone this year, but with Pat White possibly running the show it could be an extra dimension. Gadget plays aside, this is still a pretty solid football team. As long as Chad Pennington can still lob passes accurately, and the D led by the return of Jason Taylor holds up they'll be good.
-What Happened: We did see a little of the Wildcat and Pat White, but the story for Miami was the emergence of Chad Henne after Chad Pennington got hurt again. They did just miss the playoffs, but injuries were a big problem for this team all season long. They should be back next year with Henne leading the show.
4) Buffalo Bills 6-10
*Over/Under 7/5 Wins - UNDER
-Y1: Under Y2: Under
-What we said: "I think you hit the nail on the head with this team. They seem to have a bunch of mismatched parts thrown together to try to find an offense. I don't think TO is necessarily going to make Trent Edwards a better quarterback at this time of his career."
-What Happened: All you need to know about this team's season is that every single coach was fired at the end of the year. Usually that's not a good statement on your season. TO didn't make Trent Edwards better... in fact, he probably got worse. This is a team with a very questionable future in an increasingly tough division.
AFC North
1) Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
*Over/Under 7 Wins - OVER
-Brother Yohey: Push
-What we said: "They are counting on Cedric Benson at RB to carry the load, but will he be Rudi Johnson circa mid 2000’s, or continue Cincy's more recent poor ground game? The defense is going to have to be recognized as a rising unit with Rivers, Jones and Johnson in the linebacking core and the addition of Rey Maualuaga may just be what the Bengals need to get over the hump and possibly save Lewis‘ job."
-What Happened: Well, Ced Benson was circa mid 2000s Rudi Johnson and then some, to the amazement of the NFL. Carson Palmer and Chad 85 had a rebounding year as well. The real story though was the emergence of the defense as a rising unit led by the LBs and a good secondary. The Bengals overcame tragedy this year to make the playoffs, going through losing the wife of DC Mike Zimmer, and WR Chris Henry.
2) Baltimore Ravens 9-7
*Over/Under 9 Wins - PUSH
-BY: Over
-What we said: "With Flacco having another year to learn the offense and study, he should be a better QB, especially with the rocket arm and a solid play action attack with the rise of Ray Rice at RB."
-What Happened: A role reversal in Baltimore saw the offense carry the Ravens for much of the season. Joe Flacco improved further and Ray Rice took the NFL by storm as a dual threat RB. The defense may not be what it once was, but it was enough to sneak the Ravens into the playoffs at the expense of...
3) Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
*Over/Under 10.5 Wins - UNDER
-BY: Over
-What we said: "The Perennial AFC North powerhouse returns to defend their Super Bowl title, and they have to be a favorite to repeat. Big Ben is back with Ward, reigning SB MVP Holmes, and Miller at his disposal"
-What Happened: What happened? It's honestly still hard to figure out how Pittsburgh isn't sitting here today with an AFC North title and a playoff bye. If you can point to something, it could be injuries (Polamalu), and a struuggling offensive line. Maybe Mike Tomlin should watch an offseason worth of House and come up with some different motivational techniques, unleashing and threatening jobs didn't exactly work.
4) Cleveland Browns 5-11
*Over/Under 6.5 Wins - UNDER
-BY: Over
-What we said: "There is no solid QB, the #1 WR has inconsistent hands and there are no consistent producers on defense. Just because those are questions that we don’t have answers to does not mean that there is no hope for us Browns fans... Not to the playoffs yet, but at least we might have some hope, is that too much to ask?"
-What Happened: Well, a little hope was too much to ask for much of the season. Then, somehow, a 1-11 Browns team won 4 straight to end the season. Browns fans also rejoiced at the departure of Braylon Edwards. The emergence of Harrison and Cribbs as well as the arrival of Mike Holmgren should give Browns fans a glimmer, time will tell if that is with the Mangenius, or without.
AFC South
1) Indianapolis Colts 14-2
*Over/Under 10 Wins - OVER
-Y1: Push Y2: Over
-What we said: "Y1: Well, with the Dungy Era over, and Peyton Manning the last of the Big 3 left, this is certainly a different Colts team. The question has to be: is their window finally closing? I think it is, but it won't be shut just yet this season."
-What Happened: Umm... window definitely not shut this season. Honestly, the Colts should have gone 16-0. Jim Caldwell might as well be Tony Dungy with the calm leadership he has provided the team. It is a different club, but with players like Collie, Brown, and Garcon stepping up, other more fancied players weren't missed at all. The true test comes in January to see if the sit 'em strategy works or flops.
2) Houston Texans 9-7
*Over/Under 8.5 Wins - OVER
-Y1: Under Y2: Over
-What we said: Is this finally the year for the Texans to make the playoffs? I say yes it is. Andre Johnson proved he's in the discussion for best receiver in the league with his consistent performance all season and Steve Slaton provided a nice boost for the ground game. Behind the steady play of a healthy Matt Schaub and an improving defense, I say they finally break the glass ceiling.
-What Happened: Well, it was the year the Texans broke the glass ceiling... to get above .500. Again though, this team showed way too many inconsistencies to make the postseason. Every time you counted Houston out, they proved us wrong... and every time you expected them to make a run, they floundered. It'll have to be another season before they break the playoff glass ceiling.
3) Tennessee Titans 8-8
*Over/Under 9 Wins - UNDER
-Y1: Over Y2: Over
-What we said: "The Titans are a mystery to me for this season. Sure, they were great last year, but can they keep it up for a second year... with Kerry Collins back at QB? Smash and Dash should still be able to run the ball..."
-What Happened: Dash smashed the NFL record books in a truly mysterious season for the Titans. The great was Chris Johnson setting an NFL yards from scrimmage record including 2,000 on the ground. The good was Vince Young returning to the lineup and looking like an NFL QB. The ugly though was an 0-6 start that was just too big for even an 8-2 finish to climb out of.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9
*Over/Under 8.5 Wins - UNDER
-Y1: Under Y2: Under
-What we said: "I was surprised when I saw this over/under. This team has been under a lot of turmoil recently as you mentioned, and I don't see Del Rio coming back as coach unless he can get to the playoffs. The offense has no bona fide weapons after fantasy stud Maurice Jones-Drew and the defense has been in decline recently. This is one of the easier bets for me."
-What Happened: The Jags had a chance to prove us wrong and make a push, but they lost that crucial Thursday night game to Indy at home. After that happened, it was all downhill for the Jags as they petered out down the stretch. In fact, the biggest news this season for the Jags was repeatedly crappy attendance. Watch this team as a potential leading relocation candidate.
AFC West
1) San Diego Chargers 13-3
*Over/Under 9.5 Wins - OVER
-Y1: Over Y2: Over
-What we said: "Y1: SD is the team to beat out West in the AFC. Philip Rivers just got a massive extension, and LT is actually playing in the preseason. Darren Sproles is back and the controversy/distractions aren't there like they have in the past. The Bolts are a little under the radar for a change. They'll take the weak AFC west easily."
-What Happened: The Bolts did fly under the radar for much of the season. Now, San Diego is unquestionably the hottest team headed into the postseason and the AFC's 2 seed on the back of 10 straight wins. If it weren't for heroics of Johnson, Brees, and Manning - Phil Rivers would be the lead MVP candidate. Many are touting this team as this year's Super Bowl favorite.
2) Denver Broncos 8-8
*Over/Under 7.5 Wins - OVER
-Y1: Under Y2: Under
-What we said: "Denver is the leading nominee for Worst Offseason This Decade by an NFL team. They lose Mike Shanahan, their new, young, egotistical coach kicks the Pro Bowl QB out of town, your best WR is disgruntled, your D is as thin as the Rocky Mountain air, oh and Kyle Orton is supposed to be your savior. Yikes!"
-What Happened: Well, we looked absolutely stupid for much of the season. But, then Josh McDaniels' ego reared its ugly head at the wrong time as he benched Brandon Marshall before the last game of the season for an injury controversy. The real Kyle Orton finally showed up down the stretch and the Broncos failed to make the postseason after a 6-0 start. It was the biggest roller coaster ride in the NFL this season, but the ride stopped short of the finish line.
3) Oakland Raiders 5-11
*Over/Under 5.5 Wins - UNDER
-Y1: Over Y2: Under
-What we said: "The only race the Raiders will be in is for the 1st pick in next year's draft. The once proud silver and black have disappeared into a black hole of disorganization and disgrace. They don't have a team, but only a collection of athletes (Russell, McFadden, Heyward-Bey, etc.) They'll get a few wins, but certainly not more than 5."
-What Happened: Some athletes did play well for the Raiders... like Charlie Frye! JaMarcus Russell and DHB on the other hand... not so much. Russell had a QB rating of 50 on the season and was benched for Charlie Frye and Bruce Gradkowski while DHB had 9 catches (not for a game, for a season!!). Come to think of it, it's a miracle they did get to 5 wins, but the future in the Black Hole looks bleak.
4) Kansas City Chiefs 4-12
*Over/Under 6 Wins - UNDER
-Y1: Under Y2: Push
-What we said: "The question for the Chiefs has to be, do you believe in Todd Haley and Matt Cassell? Umm... I'm not so sure that I do. Kansas City was a bad team last year, they'll be bad again this year. Larry Johnson will still be broken down, the defense still isn't great, they'll finish in the cellar."
-What Happened: Missouri football is the unofficial cellar of the NFL (thanks for taking it away from Ohio!). The Chiefs were absolutely atrocious this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Haley/Cassell marriage doesn't last beyond next season. This team, along with St. Louis, needs the biggest infusion of talent in the league. Outside of maybe some moldy bread, a box of cheez-its, and a can of beans, this cupboard is completely bare.
Be sure to join us tomorrow for our NFC recap, and stay tuned this week for a special wrapup to our RSS original, the Decade Series. Try to enjoy the Orange Bowl tonight, until next time, it's bye for now!
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