Can The Magic Really Beat The Celtics?

Yesterday, we asked whether or not the Suns could really beat the Lakers. Now, we ask the same question to the Eastern Conference Finals where the Magic looked out of tricks and quit on the season by getting blown out in Game 3 and looking likely to get swept. Now, the Magic have won Game 4 in OT and Game 5 at home to draw the series to 3-2 going back to Boston. The Magic have all the momentum, but can they really beat the Celtics?

Yes.

In fact, the Magic are much more likely to beat the Celtics than the Suns are the Lakers - even though the Magic must win 2 of 2 and Phoenix must win 2 of 3. This is largely because the Magic have the experience of winning in Boston before. Not only in Game 4, where they were arguably lucky to escape with victory, but last year as well. The Magic have won 3 games in Boston in the last two years in the playoffs including a Game 7 last season in the East semifinals. With this history of winning in Boston, the Magic will have all the confidence in the world that they can be the first ever NBA team to come back from 3-0 down to win a series.

Orlando is only the 10th team out of 93 down 3-0 to force a Game 6. But, their sudden ability to turn it on has to have C's fans worried they can be the first to win the series. Now, I'm not going to sit here and praise Orlando for suddenly trying like a lot of others have had on ESPN and elsewhere. Their performance in the first 3 games was embarrassing... but now the real Magic have woken up, they have every chance to complete a historic comeback.

But why?

Besides their history of winning in Boston, Dwight Howard has become enough of a threat offensively to open up 3 point shooting chances. And, Orlando is taking advantage of those opportunities. They've shot 23/55 (42%) in 2 wins and 20/70 (28%) in 3 losses from downtown. Superman is averaging 26.5 pts and 13 reb in wins compared to 16.7 pts and 9 reb in losses. And, although I hate to give this guy credit, JJ Reddick has scored 13 ppg in the last 2 and has a combined +/- of +32 in Magic wins. With Reddick and Jameer Nelson stepping up in the backcourt (and Vince Carter seeing less important action), the Magic become a more complete and dangerous team.

Combine that with a Boston team that has seen Rajon Rondo ineffective, Kevin Garnett slumping, Kendrick Perkins getting tossed, and Big Baby getting knocked out... and there are much larger problems for the Celtics than the Lakers. Unlike the Lakers/Suns series out west, the Celtics know that this Magic team can beat them, and their combustible behavior in Game 5 is evidence of that. Of course, they could find their rhythm in Game 6, be boosted by the home crowd, and sense the urgency of the moment to close out the series... but I wouldn't bet any savings on that happening.

You can read between the lines and see Boston's worry. Paul Pierce said before last night's game that the C's were treating it as a Game 7. Luckily for him and Boston, they have 2 more Game 7's to go... but that might suit Orlando just fine.