Can The Suns Really Beat The Lakers?

A week ago, the Western Conference Finals were 2-0. The Lakers had averaged 126 points in their home games. Everyone was proclaiming that we were in for the 9,000th Lakers-Celtics Finals in history. Kobe Bryant was the real MVP. And, the Phoenix Suns were defending about as well as the border patrol.

(Rimshot!)

Fast forward to today and the Suns have now tied the series at 2, Steve Nash has endeared himself to millions again by getting his nose broken, the Lakers haven't figured out the zone defense, and the Suns bench has come alive (scoring 54 points in Game 4), and now there is a chance that we might not get that Lakers-Celtics Finals.

So... can the Suns really beat the Lakers?

The Suns might just be wacky enough to beat the Lakers. Think about their bench unit that starred last night: Goran Dragic, Leandro Barbosa, Jared Dudley, Lou Amundson, and Channing Frye. These 5 guys that look more like a variety show cast beat the reigning world champs and Kobe Bryant?? Seriously? This hustling bunch of 3 point shooters, when they're on their game, are a dangerous unit because they are so unorthodox. 4 of them are legit threats from downtown, each one works hard defensively, and they share the ball and run effectively. There is one problem though... can they do it in LA? Oh, and they also badly need a nickname.

For the Suns to beat the Lakers, their bench has to play well in Staples Center. The Suns bench only averaged 30.5 pts in Games 1 and 2. They averaged 34.5 pts in Games 3 and 4. The bench shot 21/55 in Games 1 and 2 and 23/53 in Games 3 and 4. While those aren't huge statistical differences between the home and road performances, this is: -56 combined point differential in Games 1 and 2, but a +37 diff in Games 3 and 4. The bench started the 4th quarter last night with a 1 point lead and started the period with a 14-5 run to win the game.

The Suns have found a formula to beat the Lakers... but so did Oklahoma City. OKC played LA even after 4 games, lost Game 5 and then blew it down the stretch in 6. Phoenix needs to carry their energy and shotmaking ability (bench and starters) on the road, which will be much harder than in Arizona. For whatever reason, role/bench players play much better at home - it's a universal basketball fact.

The Lakers are unbeaten this postseason at home and that's why homecourt means so much in the NBA. The Lakers will have Games 5 & 7 at home where they have seemed nearly invincible. They play better defense at home, they move the ball better at home, and the role players step up in Staples. I'll be rooting for the Suns and their unique team, but I don't think their success can carry over and win either Game 5 or 7 on the road. It will be fun to watch, but even though the basketball world appears to be changing, the Suns will still set in the West.