College Football Expansion: Winners and Losers

Only days ago, it seemed the end of college football as we knew it was dead. The Big XII was practically dead, ready to be annexed by the Pac-10. The Big Ten had already added Nebraska and looked poised to raid the Big East. Now, the Big XII is saved, the Pac-10 is scrambling for just one more team, and the Big Ten seems content. How did we get here? Who are the winners and losers now that radical realignment seems to be on the backburner?

Update: This morning, Chip Brown of orangebloods.com, who has been the driving force behind all of the best, most accurate reporting of this story, posted a great timeline of all the events that took place over the past two weeks. He also includes his own list of winners and losers, definitely worth a look.

Winners

(1) Texas...duh!

-Texas was going to come out smelling like roses no matter what the result. With a move to the Big Ten or Pac-10 they would become head honcho of the first superconference. Somehow though, they managed to leverage their flirtations of leaving the Big XII with getting their own network just to stay put. Now, they'll get an increased slice of a tv deal and buyout penalties from Colorado and Nebraska only cut with 9 other teams (thanks to the work of commish Dan Beebe) and basically become lord and ruler over the rest of the Big XII. Sacrificing that for the loss of the two farthest north programs in the Big XII and the loss of a title game and the cost is well worth the reward. Think about the next few years, all Texas has to do is beat Oklahoma and they'll go undefeated and walk to the National Championship. For a program that was already the richest in the country, Texas has only gotten richer in the last 72 hours. Maybe the next innovation in college athletics should be a profit cap...and that's only kind of a joke.

(2) Nebraska and the Big Ten

-Something tells me Nebraska doesn't regret slipping out from under Texas's thumb in the Big XII. It's long chaffed Tom Osborne that the axis of power shifted south to Texas when the Big 8 became the Big XII. Now, Nebraska claims they feel culturally and academically more at home in the Big Ten, a conference with its own money-making machine (The Big Ten Network) and stability for the next 50 years. And, for once in this entire mess, I actually believe Nebraska at face value. Although they turn their backs on 100 years of tradition, it doesn't feel like a radical change. While traditional rivalries might be gone for good, nobody thinks Nebraska won't be able to form new ones with the likes of Iowa and Wisconsin. The fit is just too perfect, for both sides. Now, at 12 teams, the Big Ten can grab cash with a conference championship while patiently finding the perfect victims, I mean schools, to advance into Eastern tv markets.

(3) ESPN/Fox

-Secretly, the true winners in this whole mess were the tv networks whose job it is to cover the events as they unfold, ESPN and Fox. Why you might ask...one word, money. The same factor that has driven this entire problem of college football armageddon. And who pays the most money? The television networks. Only after the Big XII got assurances for a huge increase in pay from ESPN and Fox Sports Net did Texas and the rest of the potential elopers decide to stay. So, it seems that the fate of the superconferences and the death of the NCAA doesn't rest with a faculty lounge or in an athletic office, it resides in Bristol, CT., which might be the worst news of all.

Losers

(1) Colorado

-Colorado jumped at the chance to make a headline, and it might have cost them dearly. Nebraska had already announced intentions to join the Big Ten, and it seemed a mortal lock that Texas and the rest were going to the Pac-10. But, for some reason (maybe to make sure Baylor or Kansas didn't usurp their bid) Colorado decided it had to be the first to leave the Big XII, as if there were some sort of prize for it?! Now, they wind up paying a hefty buyout penalty back to the Big XII and become an outsider in the Pac-10/11. Go ahead. Try to make a convincing argument that Colorado belongs with the likes of USC, Cal, Washington, and Arizona. They don't. What they have done is ensured another 10 years of mediocrity in almost every sport. Colorado is the one school who might rather push the reset button on this whole mess.

(2) The Pac-10/11

-The one man with the most egg on his face today is surely Pac-10 commish Larry Scott. Less than a week ago, Scott was announcing the first of many conquests by welcoming Colorado into the Pac-10. Now, after being rebuffed by Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest, he has to pretend to be happy settling for Colorado and possibly Utah. Kind of a big drop off, right? Without Texas, the value of a potential Pac-10 network drops substantially, not to mention the recent penalties imposed on USC. Turns out the Pac-10 just couldn't come up with the money to lure the big fishes into their boat. And if that's the case now, what could possibly change that in the near future? This was their chance to be leaders in college realignment, the next time around, expect them to be at the end of the line.

(3) The Mountain West

-Just days ago, it seemed the Mountain West was on the fast-track to BCS stardom. Not only were they adding national darling Boise St., but they seemed to be ready to mop up the remainder of the Big XII, which would have been nothing to sneeze at for a perennial mid-major. Now, they're right back where they started if they lose Utah to the Pac-10/11, on the outside looking in to the BCS party.

Somewhere Between

(1) The NCAA

-For the moment, the NCAA comes out smelling like roses once again. They laid the hammer down on USC, and avoided a 64 team alliance of 4 superconferences from leaving. But, do we really understand how close we came to the NCAA becoming totally irrelevant in major college athletics? I've said before, I think there'll always be a place for the NCAA, what with all they provide at the DII and DIII level. But, if we ever do see these conferences expand to 16 team conferences, the NCAA won't be big enough to contain the ultimate cash grab from these greedy universities. Look for Big Ten expansion to come up again within the next year.

(2) The Rest of the Big XII

-For the rest of the Big XII (Kansas, Kansas St., Mizzou, Iowa St., and Baylor), it was really the lesser of two evils. They could stay in a ten team Big XII that would become even more dominated, or face exile to the Mountain West. In the end, these teams, and commish Dan Beebe were able to convince Texas to rule over them for the next 20 years with their uneven financial distribution and the soon-to-come Longhorn tv network. While these teams might become the Pirates to Texas and Oklahoma's Yanks and Sawx, at least they're still in the big leagues in a BCS conference.

(3) Notre Dame

-Still the belle of the ball and the apple of the Big Ten's eye, Notre Dame has again escaped with their coveted football independence. But, for how long can they survive? Now more than ever, the walls are closing in on the Fighting Irish. If the Pac-10 had gone to the Pac-16, surely their hand would have been forced like so many other schools. But, now their boosters and alumn who love their golden calf of independence can live to fight another day after winning this battle. But, the war seems to be far from over for Notre Dame and the tenuous world of college football.

The College Football Apocalypse Is Upon Us

Two months ago, we theorized what the New World Order of college football would look like here. Today, that reality is much closer than anyone ever expected with the events of the past week. With expansion talk accelerating at a rapid pace around the country, and the walls of Troy coming down in Los Angeles, this is one of the biggest weeks in college football history. Let's take a look at each story and it's ramifications.

*The Hammer Comes Down on USC

-Wow. I don't know if anybody expected this. A 2 year bowl ban, the loss of 20 scholarships, and the likely removal of their 2004 national championship. The penalties handed down by the NCAA are the biggest in recent memory to be handed down to a national program - at least since 1993 and Auburn went 11-0 with a postseason and TV ban. But, USC, the darling of ESPN and Hollywood, looks like it might have to start over. Everyone was so enamored with how cool USC was and turned a blind eye to what was going on behind the scenes. I'm sure Colin Cowherd will brush it off, but I can't see how a program can keep the wagons rolling with a legendary head coach leaving for the NFL, a 2 year ban, and the loss of that many scholarships.

Obviously, this hurts USC going forward - no chance at a national title the next two seasons, and Lane Kiffin won't be able to handle the loss of 20 scholarships well. But, even more damaging is the stain left on the USC brand and the Pete Carroll Era. Carroll now looks like a coach on the Calipari level that left when the going got tough and leaves a wasteland behind him. Carroll's reputation gets flushed in this because he ran to the pros before he could clean up the mess he created. (By the way, I think I called that in January) The USC of the 2000s was the A-list program, contained the supposed greatest team of all-time, won 3 Heisman Trophies, and what was 2 National Championships - but now looks like just 1.

Clearly, there were major violations here and the NCAA is in the business of making an example out of USC with these penalties. It's going to be an interesting two years to see how Lane Kiffin deals with this adversity. Now with the Pac 10 looking like it's going to 16 teams and adding the Texas and Oklahoma juggernauts, USC's time at the top may be over.

*Nebraska Hits The Red Button

-Tom Osborne and Nebraska made the decision that dissolved the Big 12. Nebraska leaving the Big 12 for the Big 10 is the move that starts all of the other dominoes falling. It's somewhat sad to see the Big 8/Big 12 tradition go poof, but it is a fantastic move for the Cornhuskers. Yes, the Big 10 Network and all the extra money is nice, but Nebraska is a perfect fit for the Big 10 as far as football tradition in the Midwest. The folks in Lincoln will fit right in with the ones in Columbus, Ann Arbor, Madison, and Iowa City. Going to the New Big 10 opens doors to Nebraska for new rivalries and gives them a chance to continue to rebuild the program in a conference that lacks the depth of other major players. Give credit to Osborne and Nebraska, in this situation universities need to be proactive instead of reactive, and Nebraska leaving for the Big 10 does just that.

*The Pac 10 Annexes The Big 12

-Being proactive is just what new Pac 10 commissioner Larry Scott is doing. Today, Colorado appears to be the first school to move west from the Big 12 to the Pac 10. Basically, the Big 12 South now becomes the Pac 10 East - with Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State joining Colorado in going west. The Pac 10 might emerge as the big winner in all of the reshuffling because of the additions of Oklahoma and most importantly Texas. Texas (maybe even more so than Notre Dame) is the prized recruit in the apocalypse. The Pac 10 instantly becomes a rival to the SEC for best football conference in the nation, and they become the first league to reach the 16 Team Superconference plateau.

*Remaining Questions

What About Missouri? - Missouri looks more and more likely to be the school that's left without a dance partner. All along, Mizzou was thought to be joining Nebraska in going to the Big 10, but the vibes coming out recently make it seem like that is becoming less likely. Perhaps the Big 10 doesn't want stuck with 13 teams at the moment and they'll come in later... or it's time for Tiger fans to start to worry. With no Big 12, the Big 10 is clearly the best fit for Missouri, but they may be stranded with Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., and Baylor as the Big 12's casualties. Hello Mountain West?

Does Notre Dame Get In? - Notre Dame has held out with CFB independence for so long, and has found it very fruitful... but now might be the time to get in. Notre Dame does not want to be left out of the party if 4-5 Megaconferences bolt from the NCAA and leave ND and NBC with games against Army and Syracuse. The Big 10 and the rest of college football might force the hand of the Irish to join the league that has sought them for so long. But, now, the pressure might shift from the conference to Notre Dame to make their move.

Who Makes The Next Move? - Assuming the Nebraska and Pac 10 moves happen, the next move may be the most crucial. Does the Big 10 try to reach 16? Does the Mountain West try to shoehorn themselves in by getting Boise, Kansas, and Mizzou? Do the Eastern schools finally get in on the action with the SEC or the ACC poaching from the Big East to begin its downfall? The college football apocalypse is now upon us folks, get ready for a wild ride and a vastly different and possibly soon to be irrelevant NCAA.