College Football Expansion: Winners and Losers

Only days ago, it seemed the end of college football as we knew it was dead. The Big XII was practically dead, ready to be annexed by the Pac-10. The Big Ten had already added Nebraska and looked poised to raid the Big East. Now, the Big XII is saved, the Pac-10 is scrambling for just one more team, and the Big Ten seems content. How did we get here? Who are the winners and losers now that radical realignment seems to be on the backburner?

Update: This morning, Chip Brown of orangebloods.com, who has been the driving force behind all of the best, most accurate reporting of this story, posted a great timeline of all the events that took place over the past two weeks. He also includes his own list of winners and losers, definitely worth a look.

Winners

(1) Texas...duh!

-Texas was going to come out smelling like roses no matter what the result. With a move to the Big Ten or Pac-10 they would become head honcho of the first superconference. Somehow though, they managed to leverage their flirtations of leaving the Big XII with getting their own network just to stay put. Now, they'll get an increased slice of a tv deal and buyout penalties from Colorado and Nebraska only cut with 9 other teams (thanks to the work of commish Dan Beebe) and basically become lord and ruler over the rest of the Big XII. Sacrificing that for the loss of the two farthest north programs in the Big XII and the loss of a title game and the cost is well worth the reward. Think about the next few years, all Texas has to do is beat Oklahoma and they'll go undefeated and walk to the National Championship. For a program that was already the richest in the country, Texas has only gotten richer in the last 72 hours. Maybe the next innovation in college athletics should be a profit cap...and that's only kind of a joke.

(2) Nebraska and the Big Ten

-Something tells me Nebraska doesn't regret slipping out from under Texas's thumb in the Big XII. It's long chaffed Tom Osborne that the axis of power shifted south to Texas when the Big 8 became the Big XII. Now, Nebraska claims they feel culturally and academically more at home in the Big Ten, a conference with its own money-making machine (The Big Ten Network) and stability for the next 50 years. And, for once in this entire mess, I actually believe Nebraska at face value. Although they turn their backs on 100 years of tradition, it doesn't feel like a radical change. While traditional rivalries might be gone for good, nobody thinks Nebraska won't be able to form new ones with the likes of Iowa and Wisconsin. The fit is just too perfect, for both sides. Now, at 12 teams, the Big Ten can grab cash with a conference championship while patiently finding the perfect victims, I mean schools, to advance into Eastern tv markets.

(3) ESPN/Fox

-Secretly, the true winners in this whole mess were the tv networks whose job it is to cover the events as they unfold, ESPN and Fox. Why you might ask...one word, money. The same factor that has driven this entire problem of college football armageddon. And who pays the most money? The television networks. Only after the Big XII got assurances for a huge increase in pay from ESPN and Fox Sports Net did Texas and the rest of the potential elopers decide to stay. So, it seems that the fate of the superconferences and the death of the NCAA doesn't rest with a faculty lounge or in an athletic office, it resides in Bristol, CT., which might be the worst news of all.

Losers

(1) Colorado

-Colorado jumped at the chance to make a headline, and it might have cost them dearly. Nebraska had already announced intentions to join the Big Ten, and it seemed a mortal lock that Texas and the rest were going to the Pac-10. But, for some reason (maybe to make sure Baylor or Kansas didn't usurp their bid) Colorado decided it had to be the first to leave the Big XII, as if there were some sort of prize for it?! Now, they wind up paying a hefty buyout penalty back to the Big XII and become an outsider in the Pac-10/11. Go ahead. Try to make a convincing argument that Colorado belongs with the likes of USC, Cal, Washington, and Arizona. They don't. What they have done is ensured another 10 years of mediocrity in almost every sport. Colorado is the one school who might rather push the reset button on this whole mess.

(2) The Pac-10/11

-The one man with the most egg on his face today is surely Pac-10 commish Larry Scott. Less than a week ago, Scott was announcing the first of many conquests by welcoming Colorado into the Pac-10. Now, after being rebuffed by Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest, he has to pretend to be happy settling for Colorado and possibly Utah. Kind of a big drop off, right? Without Texas, the value of a potential Pac-10 network drops substantially, not to mention the recent penalties imposed on USC. Turns out the Pac-10 just couldn't come up with the money to lure the big fishes into their boat. And if that's the case now, what could possibly change that in the near future? This was their chance to be leaders in college realignment, the next time around, expect them to be at the end of the line.

(3) The Mountain West

-Just days ago, it seemed the Mountain West was on the fast-track to BCS stardom. Not only were they adding national darling Boise St., but they seemed to be ready to mop up the remainder of the Big XII, which would have been nothing to sneeze at for a perennial mid-major. Now, they're right back where they started if they lose Utah to the Pac-10/11, on the outside looking in to the BCS party.

Somewhere Between

(1) The NCAA

-For the moment, the NCAA comes out smelling like roses once again. They laid the hammer down on USC, and avoided a 64 team alliance of 4 superconferences from leaving. But, do we really understand how close we came to the NCAA becoming totally irrelevant in major college athletics? I've said before, I think there'll always be a place for the NCAA, what with all they provide at the DII and DIII level. But, if we ever do see these conferences expand to 16 team conferences, the NCAA won't be big enough to contain the ultimate cash grab from these greedy universities. Look for Big Ten expansion to come up again within the next year.

(2) The Rest of the Big XII

-For the rest of the Big XII (Kansas, Kansas St., Mizzou, Iowa St., and Baylor), it was really the lesser of two evils. They could stay in a ten team Big XII that would become even more dominated, or face exile to the Mountain West. In the end, these teams, and commish Dan Beebe were able to convince Texas to rule over them for the next 20 years with their uneven financial distribution and the soon-to-come Longhorn tv network. While these teams might become the Pirates to Texas and Oklahoma's Yanks and Sawx, at least they're still in the big leagues in a BCS conference.

(3) Notre Dame

-Still the belle of the ball and the apple of the Big Ten's eye, Notre Dame has again escaped with their coveted football independence. But, for how long can they survive? Now more than ever, the walls are closing in on the Fighting Irish. If the Pac-10 had gone to the Pac-16, surely their hand would have been forced like so many other schools. But, now their boosters and alumn who love their golden calf of independence can live to fight another day after winning this battle. But, the war seems to be far from over for Notre Dame and the tenuous world of college football.

Big Ten Expansion and the New World Order of College Athletics

Amid all the noise of the NFL Draft and the playoffs of the NHL and NBA, there is a storm cloud on the horizon that could change college athletics forever. You probably already knew the Big Ten was poised for expansion in the near future. But, did you know they are accelerating those plans? Did you also know the other major conferences, the SEC, ACC, and Pac 10 are already plotting their responses? Where could it all end? Let's take a look into the crystal ball and see!

Background

-Ok, at first, Big Ten expansion seems rather mundane. So what if they go from 11 to 12 or 14, they'll get their big money football title game, increase profits, hit new tv markets, blah, blah, blah. But, what about the ripples of this potential move? I was one of those folks who didn't think anymore about the effects of Big Ten expansion...until I read former Syracuse A.D. Jake Croumathel in this New York Times story yesterday. Here's an excerpt:

Eventually, Crouthamel said he saw the Big Ten, the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Southeastern Conference and the Pacific-10 forming four 16-team superconferences and leaving the umbrella of the N.C.A.A. (Just imagine the fight between the SEC and the Pac-10 for Texas.) He said that those leagues would form their own basketball tournament to rival the N.C.A.A. tournament.

“If you look at the history of what’s been going on for the last decade, I think it’s leading in that direction,” he said.

So, 64 teams forming their own intercollegiate athletic association? Their own tv deals, their own academic standards, their own champions? That's crazy talk, right? Maybe not as much as you'd think. To prove how easy it is to envision this scenario, let's tackle what this New World Order of College Athletics (NWOCA for short) would look like.

The Rules

We've taken the teams from the current BCS conferences (Big East, ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big XII, Pac 10). Also throw into the mix are Boise St. and TCU, which have been promoted from the ranks of the mid-majors into the NWOCA. That means some teams are going to have to bite the dust. If you're a fan of these schools remember, it's not personal, it's just business.

(1) Mississippi St. - One half of the Egg Bowl wasn't going to make it into the NWOCA. Both Mississippi schools have been dreadful in football and basketball for much of the last 15+ years, save a few bright spots. Ole Miss wins out due to its history and that scary lookin' Rebel guy.

(2) Iowa St. - Umm, if anyone can give a reason to keep Iowa St. in this conglomerate, that would be the first.

(3) Baylor - Despite the success of Scott Drew's run into the Sweet 16, there just hasn't been enough success on the football field to warrant them staying over teams with richer tradition or more recent success in their region.

(4) Washington St. - No, not the school of Ryan Leaf! A record of 3-22 since 2008, they were the school on the West Coast that missed the cut.

(5) The Big East - The biggest victim of the NWOCA will be the basketball behemoth formerly known as the Big East. Several schools with little or no football will be cut out of the pie. So, we'll join what's left of the Big East with some other smaller basketball powerhouses to create a 12 team basketball league on par with the NWOCA. The new conference with two divisions would look like this:

The Old School Basketball Alliance

Eastern Division

Georgetown

Temple

UMass

St. John's

Providence

Villanova

Western Division

DePaul

Xavier

Dayton

Marquette

Memphis

Butler

-A nice blend of old, dormant powerhouses and programs on the rise. The great basketball schools of the Northeast combined with the best from the heartland, this conference could either be accepted into the NWOCA Basketball Championship for a 76 team tournament, or could be the jewel of whatever's left of the NCAA.

-Ok, now on to the meat of the matter. Here's what the new 16-team superconferences, each with two 8-team divisions, will look like. We'll follow each with some pros and cons to the allignment.

Update: You can compare my conferences with Andy Staples of SI, who looked at what these superconferences might look like back in February. That was back when this was a moon landing level conspiracy...now we're at a grassy knoll level, people!

The New ACC

NorthEast Division

Boston College

UConn

Syracuse

Rutgers

Virgina

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

Louisville

Mid-Atlantic Division

Maryland

West Virginia

North Carolina

Duke

North Carolina St.

Wake Forest

Clemson

South Carolina

Pros: This is the new Big East in terms of basketball prowess. Not only are we keeping tobacco road together in the Mid-Atlantic Division, but we're adding some of the most prestigious programs in the country (Kentucky, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville). Kentucky and Louisville and UConn and Syracuse get to keep their rivalries, while forming new ones with other hardwood powerhouses. The New York media market is also surrounded with UConn and Rutgers, while Duke is practically a bastard child of New York in basketball.

Cons: Clearly the weakest of the conferences in terms of football, but, someone out of the four has to be the whipping boy. Kentucky, UConn, and Syracuse also lose a lot of their historic rivals.

The New SEC

Southwest Division

Texas

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

Arkansas

LSU

Ole Miss

Auburn

Alabama

Southeast Division

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Georgia

Georgia Tech

Florida

Florida St.

Miami

South Florida

Pros: Wow, if this conference were to come to pass Mark May and those who love the current SEC may self-combust. In one division all of the Florida schools are finally reunited with their rivals to the north in Georgia. Also, Vandy is thrown in to raise academic standards, because we still care about the kids (wink, nudge, wink). On the other side, all of the big Texas schools are kept together. Can you imagine a conference championship between Texas and Florida?

Cons: Many of these schools don't offer much on the hardwood (South Florida, Ole Miss, Texas Tech). Also, some may question the inclusion of South Florida, but you can't argue with their progress in the toughest football recruiting area in the country.

The Big 16 (formerly the Big Ten)

East

Ohio St.

Cincinnati

Michigan

Michigan St.

Penn St.

Pitt

Indiana

Purdue

West

Northwestern

Illinois

Notre Dame

Minnesota

Iowa

Wisconsin

Mizzou

Nebraska

Pros: Notre Dame finally caves in and allows itself to join the NWOCA in the new Big 16 that sweeps the heartland. This may be the most balanced conference in terms of football and basketball. While Michigan and Ohio St. are in the same division, the possibility of them playing a Nebraska or Notre Dame remains possible in a conference championship. Also, little guy Cincinnati finally gets a crack at big brother Ohio St.

Cons: Ok, Northwestern might be a stretch, but again, we have to keep some sense of student-athletics, right? Also, Mizzou and Nebraska miss out on some of their long-standing rivals (Kansas, Texas, etc.). This conference could also use some improvement from programs like Minnesota, Indiana, and Purdue in football.

The Big West (formerly the Pac 10)

Great Plains Division

Kansas

Kansas St.

TCU

Oklahoma

Oklahoma St.

Colorado

Arizona

Arizona St.

West Coast Division

Boise St.

Washington

Oregon

Oregon St.

Cal

Stanford

USC

UCLA

Pros: Little guys Boise St. and TCU finally get to prove themselves against the "Big Boys" and avoid being in the same division. Also, all of the California schools stay together while the possibility of conference championships against the likes of Oklahoma and Kansas could be enticing.

Cons: Again, a bit of a weaker basketball conference, but a resurgence by UCLA and Arizona could do a lot to fix that problem. Also, Colin Cowherd may never want to travel east of Las Vegas ever again...come to think of it, that's actually a pro!

Final Thoughts

-So there you have it...this is what major college athletics could soon look like. Imagine the possibilities! A 64 or 76 team single-elimination Basketball Championship with no Bucknell's or Alabama A&M's taking up bids. A true Football Championship Playoff with the 4 conference champions playing each other in a single-elimination tournament. We can even throw the academic football schools in each conference (Vandy, Duke, Northwestern, and Stanford) a bone with some contrived Scholarly Athlete Trophy! Sure, the idea of Cinderella will be gone forever. There will be no more George Masons, or Butlers, or Boise St.'s but we will have the best of the best consistently playing each other. That's the price to pay for putting the almighty dollar above all else.

What do you think of our fantasy alignment...crazy conspiracy, or legit look at the future of college sports? Let us know by posting a comment below. You can also follow us on Twitter @RSS_Sports. Don't forget we'll be live blogging the 1st round of the NFL Draft this Thursday! Until next time, it's bye for now!

When More Is Not Better

There is talk making the rounds around college campuses all over the country of expanding the current NCAA tournament field from 65 to 96 teams. The thought process has to be that if 32 worked great, 64 was better and 65 is fantastic that 96 will be (Bill Walton voice) PHE-NOM-E-NAL! However, I am worried about such a travesty occurring and here are the top 3 reasons why this should not happen.

1. Slick 65

Sixty-five teams is currently the most that the field needs to expand. There is already enough mediocrity that gets in the tournament every year that doesn't make it far at all and are forgotten by the time the next game comes around. Yes, there are the magical runs of George Mason-esque teams but once you get to the 14-16 seeds the chances of a Cinderella being born gets minuscule. The current field still allows for the excitement and fever that all bracketologists get in mid-March, and the drama of upsets. Does anybody want to see Seton Hall play Oregon State in a 1st Round game??? That's what the NIT is for, but then again maybe it needs expanded to allow Valdosta State and Wash U.

2. The cheapening of the regular season

If 96 teams were to get into the NCAA tournament every year, what would be the point of even playing the regular season? There are some 350 ( give or take a few) teams in Division 1 basketball and you want to allow 25% of them to make the field? Ridiculous. Mid-major teams are going to be harmed the most by this if the expansion is enacted. Now if it comes down to 2 teams, 1 a mid-major with a good record will more than likely be looked over for a major conference team that has a lesser record. The Cinderella magic will be cheapened and will be replaced by a bunch of ugly stepsisters. Any conference tournaments will be useless; what is going to be the desire for Cincinnati to try to win the Big East crown when, even with their sub-par record, they'd have a great chance to make the tournament.

3. Live and Learn

I love College Football and think, next to the NFL, it has one of the most exciting regular seasons. Suspense is at its apex come the end of the season when conference titles are on the line. However, after the title games there comes Bowl Season, which is nauseating. I could care less who wins the Meineke Tire and Lube Bowl or the PapaJohns.com Bowl. Saturation of the bowl season has occured and besides getting into pools to win (ahem, defending RSS bowl pick 'em champ) there is no point to watching. Expansion to 96 teams would severely hurt the mystique and magic of March Madness and will spawn their own ShamWow and SlapChop games that I won't watch.

Special Comment

When necessary, I feel a Special Comment will be necessary to inject some personal feelings I have regarding a certain topic, hopefully more sensical and less insane than that other guy...

A college football playoff is something I wish would come true. The BCS, although I don't hate it, takes some suspense and drama away from the bowls and leaves more questions and answers at the end of the season. When there are multiple undefeated teams (Boise State/TCU) who don't make the big game they get an "atta boy" and a pat on the back for busting their butts all season but nothing more. A playoff would make this better but it won't happen. Why? It will run into exam time for the students. AND PUTTING 31 EXTRA TEAMS INTO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT WON'T!?!? Seriously, a 96 team playoff getting reeks of hypocrisy on the part of the NCAA. Many proposals for a football playoff only extend the season by 1 week. How long will an expansion extend the season. 1 week. WTF NCAA!? I have finals during the spring that fall around tournament time; many schools do. To make one stance regarding football and change it for basketball is quite hypocritical and would only expose the administrators of colleges across this country as flip-floppers. If the field gets to 96, shame on you, NCAA and Collegiate Executives.

Quick Hits: The Truth About Big 10 Expansion

Its Big 10 hater time again. Can you smell it in the air? We'll be the first to tell you that the whole conference supremacy debate is pointless. But, when Midwestern sensibilities and pride are under attack, don't think that the Yoders in the heartland of Columbus, OH are going to sit by idly and let our people be bullied around! Since I have a self-imposed boycott of listening to Colin Cowherd (find out why here), Y2 informed me this morning that the USC song boy was kicking around new nicknames for the expanded Big 10 such as the Tiny 12, The USC Is My Daddy Conference, and the Tanking 12 (shhhhh.... he still doesn't know yet that USC is playing in the Emerald Bowl, don't tell him, it will be a surprise).

But, what these morons like Cowherd in the mainstream media don't realize is that the Big 10 leads the world in BCS appearances. Maybe they are just too lazy and want to live off of stereotypes. (Don't tell him that the only team to beat Tim Tebow in a Bowl Game is Michigan) Oh, and the Big 10 has had 2 teams appear in the BCS each year in the last 5 years, the SEC or any other conference has not. (Don't tell him that Ohio State has a better BCS record than Alabama or Oklahoma... see if he actually has someone on his show that does research, I doubt it).

Enough wasting my own time on that pencil necked geek... what is surprising is that semi-sensible voices in the college football world like SI's Stewart Mandel are pushing back on Big 10 expansion as seen here. Mandel argues that expansion doesn't make sense dollars and cents wise because of the risk to Big 10 BCS berths and the distribution of money to each team lessening.

Is that the best argument there is? Trust me, money would not be an issue for Big 10 teams. The +/- on the money end would be negligible and making the argument about money is the wrong thing. The Big 10 needs to expand and add a championship game to be relevant in the month of December. Ohio State and Michigan played almost a month ago. The conference goes into hibernation for 6 weeks before meaningful football is played again. The Big 10 has seen conferences like the Big 12 and the SEC thrive on Championship weekend and they want a piece of the action.

The biggest real concern would be the effect on rivalry games at the end of the season and how divisions are split, but that should be figured out along the way. I would expect it to be done right though and not have a situation like the Big 12 where Nebraska and Oklahoma don't play every year.

Think of the possibilities with an open mind though. Could you imagine Ohio State and Michigan playing in a Big 10 Title Game in primetime at Soldier Field in Chicago? What about Notre Dame playing the Buckeyes at Ford Field in Detroit? Are those not glamour games that any conference would want?

The question is why are there so many voices trying to put down Big 10 expansion? Is it because the mainstream sports media wants to keep the Midwest in their place? The Big 10 isn't a threat right now in the last month without a championship game, and they can be brushed to the side. Why would these college football pundits want a showcase game for the conference when it is more comfortable and easy to live off of stereotypes and inaccuracies.

Clearly, expansion is in the best interest of the Big 10. But who is the best candidate for Big 10 expansion? Obviously it's Notre Dame, but that's not a realistic expectation. Pittsburgh would make sense, but it doesn't expand the market and Penn State wouldn't exactly be in favor of it. The same is true for Cincinnati. There has been talk of adding Rutgers or Syracuse to get in the New York market, but neither of those two schools are a fit geographically or ideologically. So who is the ideal candidate...

Missouri.

Gary Pinkel's team is now a consistent contender (they were ranked #1 2 seasons ago heading into the Big 12 title game remember). Also, they open up new markets in St. Louis and Kansas City. Furthermore, the Tigers have a natural rival in Illinois already in the conference and athletic success across different sports. And, they have a good university and program that keep in step with the Big 10's Midwestern roots. Missouri would have to leave behind their rich history in the Big 8/12, but they are a perfect compliment to the Western edge of Big 10 territory. Besides ND, they are the team that makes the most sense in every way.

So let the jesters have their fun, but don't think that Big 10 expansion is a joke. Getting a 12th team and a conference championship is central to the success of the conference moving forward. With their own network to showcase even more games and an improved presence on the national stage, the Big 10 can certainly rebound after a couple tough years in big games.

Now we just need to think of a name.... The Big 10 +2? Thoughts? Anyone?