Monday, July 27, 2009

In This Economy... Even Moneyball Is Broke - Part III

The final part of the Moneyball Trilogy examines the A's most recent form. The year was 2006, genuis GM Billy Beane was at the top of his game once again, reinforcing himself as one of the brightest minds in the game. The A's were top contenders after a series of "shrewd" moves. However, just as fast as the A's were back on the scene, they were gone. Did the Mad Scientist of Moneyball spend too much time in the lab? Or did he actually blow up the building? RSS reports, you decide. (is that used by anyone?)

We begin Part III at the close of the 2006 season. The A's have actually won a playoff series but were swept in the ALCS by the Detroit Tigers. Beane was able to add vets such as Jason Kendall, Jay Payton, Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas to a lineup of young stars like Swisher, Crosby, Kotsay, and Ellis. Barry Zito was surrounded by a new emerging Big 3: Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Joe Blanton. It seemed the A's were back in line for a run at the top of the AL West. However, after the 2006 season it fell apart again.

Zito left for free agency. Manager Ken Macha was fired. Beane traded away Kotsay, Swisher, and Kendall for a group I like to refer to as the Milk Carton Gang, because that's the only place you'll ever see them. Oh, and Billy also finished off any hopes of a second A's dynasty by trading away the Not As Big But Still Fairly Large 3 by dealing Haren to the D'Backs in Dec '07, and Blanton to the Phillies and Rich Harden to the Cubs respectively in the middle of the '08 season. Would you like to see the list of outstanding, promising, future All-Stars that the A's got for the NABBSFL 3? I knew you would.

Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Josh Donaldson, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, Matthew Spencer, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez. (Go ahead tell me who is on the left, you can look it up too, I'll wait.)

Hmmm, so Billy Beane traded a dynamic pitching trio for a group of players that could best be described as journeyman, if it wasn't offensive to journeyman players, twice.

As a result of these moves the A's were underwhelming in '07 and '08 finishing under .500 both years. Why absolutely nuke a team that had just won the team's first playoff series since 1990 to oblivion, especially after you blew up the A's too soon 4 years earlier. Why quit on good young pitchers like Haren, Blanton, and Harden? Why trade away half your offense? Why give up on another established group of players after a couple of so-so years? Why do one of the hardest things in sports and rebuild... again?

The same questions can be asked this year. Why give up on Matt Holliday after 4 months in Oakland this season? Better yet, why bother trading for him in the first place?

And so here we are on July 27, 2009. The A's are in another rebuilding phase. Will they reach the playoffs anytime soon? No. Where have all the previous rebuilding projects got Oakland? Nowhere. Is one playoff series win worth all of the trades and tinkering? The constant building up and blowing up? If the A's do make a run, wouldn't A's fans just be waiting for Beane to dismantle another contender? Maybe he should just save A's fans the time and just stay in rebuilding mode - permanently.

If all of this analysis is just too much to digest, let's simplify it. Here is a list of players that have passed through Oakland during Billy Beane's tenure:

Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Jason Isringhausen, Keith Foulke, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Cory Lidle, Esteban Loaiza, Aaron Harang, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, David Justice, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Eric Byrnes, Andre Ethier, Eric Chavez, Jason Kendall, Mike Piazza, Milton Bradley, Scott Hatteberg, Frank Thomas, Nick Swisher, Matt Holliday, etc.

These are just some of the names that have come and gone from Billy Beane's puppet strings. None of these great major leaguers left Oakland with a WS appearance, let alone a championship ring. Isn't that the biggest condemnation of Beane and Moneyball? That this massive number of extremely talented players could come and go from Oakland without sniffing a championship.

How could A's fans expect success when so many All-Stars have been sent packing for what-ifs, could-bes, and never-weres? How long will it be until 2009 rookie All-Star pitcher Andrew Bailey is traded by Beane for a new wave of livestock on the Moneyball farm? For all of the praise that has been showered upon Billy Beane, there is one glaring wart about Moneyball:

None of these moves have worked!!!!!

Then again, maybe the Beane loyalists are content that he had the fanciest and nicest assets throughout the decade, and that winning titles isn't realistic. Sorry, but success is measured in championships, and sometimes those assets and stock portfolios don't always come through, especially in this economy.

One thing is clear when truly taking an in-depth look at Billy Beane. He has an itchy trigger finger. Maybe the hype and fame surrounding Moneyball went to his head. He's too concerned with moving pieces around on the chessboard that he forgets he's about to get checkmated. It's almost like trading pieces and players and prospects is a temptation Billy Beane can't resist. He's the kid playing Madden on XBox360 that has to build the perfect dynasty. Maybe he's too smart for his own good. Or maybe his system of Moneyball just doesn't work.

Ironically, over at ESPN.com, an in-depth story just went up today by Howard Bryant about Billy Beane and the Moneyball A's. I wasn't surprised to see a largely sympathetic view towards BB and the A's, considering how idolized Beane has been over the years.

Yes, he has been a revolutionary mind, yes he has changed the game of baseball, but what has Moneyball produced for Oakland A's fans? A famous, well-respected GM? A possible movie about their team? Not to cut down all the VORPies, but the Indians in Major League II got farther than Moneyball ever did, and they had to go through Jack Parkman.

Again, this is not a personal attack against Billy Beane. Bryant references folks around baseball taking pleasure in the recent struggles of the A's. I am not one of those guys. But, I do want to take a fair and balanced (whoops there I go again) account of the Moneyball Era and cut through the hype and fame that have hidden the true success or failure of Moneyball.

I'm sure that Billy is a nice guy, and perhaps he is a victim of his own brilliance, maybe he didn't ask for the burden that Moneyball has brought. But, one quote from Beane in 1999 got my attention about what is wrong about Beane and Moneyball:

"What I want," he told me that day 10 years ago, "is to be the baseball equivalent of Bill Walsh, where you have a tree of guys who worked for you, the same way I worked for Sandy, running teams all over the league. That to me is pretty cool."

Does he say he wants to win? No! Is this not a problem for warm-blooded American sports fans?? His main concern is his own legacy. A Billy Beane tree. Fame and fortune. Is winning a World Series ever in the discussion in Howard Bryant's article? No.

Maybe the legacy of Moneyball is that Billy Beane got what he wanted. He's the most famous GM in all of sports. He owns a share of the team. He gets paid to speak all over the world. His philosophies are now wide-spread among the major leagues. His disciples now run teams of their own. Brad Pitt was supposed to play him in a movie.

It's just a shame that for all the fame and adoration and legacies that Billy Beane and Moneyball have produced that Oakland A's fans never got what they wanted.

A championship.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Couldn't agree more, although Harang was in AAA when the Reds obtained him for Jose Guillen (did you mention him being a Moneyball acquisition)? I am glad you painted Moneyball as it is; a very over-hyped part of baseball lore that many just can not come to grips with. Moneyball was the beer goggles of MLB; made things look good initially, but when you woke up and took a closer look, it was nothing special.

- The Coward