4 teams remain in the 2010 World Cup, but only 1 can be etched into the history books forever as champion. One matchup features 2 of the soccer world's biggest powers in a rematch of the Euro 2008 Final (Spain v Germany) while the other features two teams that have had their day at or near the top of world soccer looking to reach a surprising final (Uruguay v Netherlands). Let's break it down and see who'll play in Soccer City July 11 for the World Cup!
Semifinal #1
Netherlands v Uruguay
All time WC record: 2nd Meeting (Series 1-0 Netherlands W 1974 Group Stage)
Netherlands WC History: 3rd Final 4 appearance, 2 final appearances, 0 wins
Netherlands Player to Watch: Midfielder Wesley Sneijder scored 2 goals against Brazil to take his tally to 4 for the tournament
Uruguay WC History: 2 time champions ('30, '50), 4th SF appearance
Uruguay Player to Watch: Without Luis Suarez, Diego Forlan will have to do the creating and finishing for Uruguay to advance
Breakdown:
-Luis Suarez's handball on the line against Ghana may have saved their tournament and cost them a shot at the final at the same time. Suarez is a huge loss for Uruguay - he's been perhaps the most valuable player for any team at this World Cup thus far. Also, captain and center back Diego Lugano might be an injury concern after having to leave the QF early on. So, Uruguay are faced with a major injury crisis. I will expect them to respond with a gameplan similar to how they played France in the opening game of the tournament. Defend. Defend. Defend. Uruguay will pack the back, crowd out Van Persie and Sneijder, and hope to frustrate the Dutch. Maybe they'll get a goal on the counter, but they're just as likely to be happy going to penalties 0-0.
For the Dutch, that means they will have to be extra creative in the final third. I don't know if they have that ability - frankly, their play has been fairly predictable in attack. Sneijder found little room to work against Brazil and scored his two goals rather fortuitously from set pieces. Then with Arjen Robben, the left footer playing on the right wing, constantly cutting inside the Dutch have little width and crowd the middle of the pitch. That would play right into a compact Uruguay defense. I think we'll see a game very similar to Spain v Paraguay in the quarters with the Netherlands dominating possession and territory. They may scrap a goal somewhere along the line, but I could see this going all the way to penalties also.
PICK: Netherlands 1 Uruguay 0
Semifinal #2
Germany v Spain
All time WC record: 4th Meeting (Germany leads series 2-0-1) Germany W 1966 Group Stage, 1982 2nd Round, Draw 1994 Group Stage
Germany WC History: 3 time champions ('54, '74, '90), 12th Final 4 appearance and 3rd straight semifinal
Germany Player to Watch: Striker Miroslav Klose needs 1 goal to tie Ronaldo for the most World Cup goals of all-time
Spain WC History: 2nd SF Appearnce (1950), most WC victories without a title
Spain Player to Watch: David Villa is the tourney's top scorer with 5 goals but watch the Barcelona central defense pairing of Puyol and Pique and how they handle the robust German attack
Breakdown:
-This will be a classic game. Finally Spain will be able to play against a side that just doesn't bunker down in defense and will find some room to operate. Vicente del Bosque came out this week in support of struggling star striker Fernando Torres , so I would expect to see him start again - especially considering he got the winning goal in the Euro 2008 Final against Germany (although I would expect him to be subbed early in the 2nd half if he's ineffective again). Spain has been the master of the 1-0 win thus far in the knockout rounds, but it will certainly take more than one goal to beat Germany Wednesday. Unlike against Argentina, Germany won't be able to dominate Spain's midfield and unlike Messi, Tevez, and Higuain in the quarters - Spain's attackers are excellent at spacing and finding gaps, especially with Villa coming in from the left. Spain should be happy to find a little more freedom to attack, but it could leave them open at the back.
However, Germany are playing so well at the moment that it's hard to see them lose, even missing young stud Thomas Muller. They should keep the same 4-2-3-1 formation with Piotr Trochowski or maybe Cacau filling in on the right wing for the suspended wunderkind. I wouldn't expect Germany to dominate Spain like England or Argentina, but they should have plenty of chances on the counterattack once again - especially on the left hand side with how much Sergio Ramos likes to get forward. Against Argentina, every goal came from the attacking left hand side! Germany's width might really expose Spain's crowded midfield (none of Busquets, Alonso, Xavi, or Iniesta are true wide midfielders) and that would really show up on the counterattack. I'm hoping for a classic and giving the slight edge to Germany because of the mojo they have going. Plus, I had Spain winning pre tournament, so really, I'll be right now either way - now that's Prognostication 101!
PICK: Germany 3 Spain 2 ET
1 comment:
I agree with the analysis of Game 1, Uruguay has shown the ability to defend for 90 minutes, but missing so many key pieces against an ever-improving Dutch side will be too much.
I'm not sure about Game #2 though. First, Torres should be on a very short leash, a half at the most. The Spanish have played their best without him, and with Cesc finally getting on the field their last game, Torres will have to produce something to stay on the field. Also, the Germans will miss Muller's instinctive runs and great linkup play more than you think.
The key is whoever scores the 1st goal. Both of these teams want to get out on the counterattack and feel more comfortable in a free-flowing game. I could see whoever goes up 1-0 going up 2 or 3 before the other team strikes back in what should be a much more thrilling affair than their drab Euro 2008 Final. I'll back Spain to repeat recent history.
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