Thursday, August 13, 2009

What Are The Odds - PGA Championship


It's that time again, Glory's Last Shot, the PGA Championship. The PGA doesn't have the history of Augusta, the toughness of the US Open, or the Britishness of the British Open, but it has provided some compelling theater over the years (see Tiger v Bob May above). It's also provided us with some yawn-inducing champions (paging Shaun Micheel and Rich Beem). Time for us to tell you who the smart money is on for this year's PGA Championship at Hazeltine (not that we are actively promoting gambling, key word being actively).

Tiger Woods - 4/5 - How can you put Tiger as anything but a better than even money favorite? Usually everyone likes to play the game of Tiger vs the field, in this case take Tiger. He's won 2 straight tournaments, he hasn't won a major yet this year, and he finished 2nd at Hazeltine in 2002. He's playing great golf and he will be extra motivated to not go the entire year winless in the majors. I'll be shocked if he doesn't win this weekend.

Paddy Harrington - 5/1 - If anyone is going to take on Tiger, it will be Paddy Harrington. The defending champ gave Tiger everything he wanted last week at Firestone before his snowman on the 16th. But, Tiger sticking up for Harrington and outing the PGA rules official for disrupting Harrington's rhythm tells me how much Tiger respects Harrington as a legit contender. His swing and confidence looks back in shape, and he'll contend again this week.

Hunter Mahan - 12/1 - Mahan is the pick this week out of folks looking for their first major. He contended at Bethpage and has all the talent in the world to pick up a major victory. The relative easiness of the PGA compared to the other majors might help Mahan tear up Hazeltine and ease some of the pressure to win on Sunday.

Euro Trip - 30/1 - Guys like Soren Hansen, Henrik Stenson, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, and yes, still Sergio Garcia are all talented Euros to have never won a major. If there is one out of the bunch to watch this week it is the steely Stenson who has proved himself to be a pretty talented player. I would be very surprised if Sergio even sniffs the front page of the leaderboard this week.

Cink/Glover/Cabrera - 40/1 - A double major winner in 2009 doesn't appear to be on the cards. These three guys were all somewhat surprise winners this year in the majors, and it would be even more of a surprise if one were to repeat. Glover has been just as anonymous after winning the US Open than he was before. Cabrera has the major pedigree with his 2 wins, but is wildly inconsistent. Cink has the best chance of the three, but he won't have a senior citizen in his way this week.

Els/Singh/Goosen - 50/1 - Over the hill major winners, who might have one last shot to claim another important victory. Seriously where have these guys gone?? These three were all once big stars, and serious contenders for any major. Now, they are constantly down the leaderboard fighting it out with the Briny Baird's and Pat Perez's of the world. Those who complain of a lack of a rival for Tiger Woods can look to these three as prime examples.

Phil Mickelson - 75/1 - Of course everyone will be rooting for lefty, but it will be incredibly hard for him to contend this week. Yes, he did well at Bethpage with all of the off-course family issues he has had to deal with. However, taking a couple months off leading up to a major has never been a recipe for success. The gallerys will root him on, but I'm just hoping for a quality tournament for Phil.

Micheel/Beem - 150/1 - If anyone really places real, actual, non-Monopoly money on either one of these two to win a 2nd PGA Championship they should see a doctor immediately, even with these odds. At least we won't have to see that dance again!





John Daly - 1000/1 - Yes we follow him on Twitter (he updates quite a lot actually, and follows all of us who follow him, how nice). Yes he has won two majors. But he has a better chance of winning the Biggest Loser than this year's PGA.




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