Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Who Wants to Be #1?


As Y1 begins his march towards insanity and the Super Bowl, college basketball slowly starts to creep back into national focus. However, as the eyes of many sports fans come back to the college hardwood, they all must be left asking, Who's #1? Not only that, does any team this season want to be #1? With South Carolina's upset of Kentucky, there'll be a new #1 for the 4th time in 5 weeks. Here's our look at the short and long-term future of the current candidates, the Top 6 in the AP Poll, all of which have received #1 votes at some point during the young season.
(1) Kentucky
Kentucky was able to savor their reign at #1 for one whole day, before being knocked off at South Carolina. Finally, the talented freshmen core of Kentucky played, well, like freshmen (save another solid performance from DeMarcus Cousins). However, most worrisome was the play of Patrick Patterson (5 points in 35 min??), who needs to assume a leadership role for this team to succeed in the long-term. When the backcourt of Wall and Bledsoe isn't dominating, Patterson has to be the man for this team to score pressure baskets. Hopefully for the Wildcats, their loss was just another example of everything President Obama touching turning to dust, instead of a harbinger of things to come.
Short Term: Expect at least 2-3 more losses in conference as this young team continues to gel and teams dare the Cats to beat them from the outside. They should still win the SEC and be in line for a #1 seed, but they won't be back at #1 in the polls for a while.
Long Term: With the way guard play has dominated the NCAA tournament, Kentucky certainly is sill a viable contender for the title. It also doesn't hurt to have the best player in the country on your side, like UK does with John Wall.

(2) Kansas
With Kentucky's loss, Kansas becomes heir to the throne nobody wants. But, they'll have to endure a test of their own at Kansas St., who already claimed Texas as an upset victim while they were ranked #1. While Kansas has undoubtedly played one of the weaker schedules of the Top 6, they've also got perhaps the deepest, most talented roster as well. If they can handle their challenge in Manhattan on Saturday, they could be poised for a long run at the top of the polls.
Short Term: As mentioned above, if they take care of business in an overall weak conference, they'll enjoy a solid reign at the top of the polls. But slipping against K-State or Texas could see them slide to the back of the pack in the upper echelon of teams.
Long Term: With the best inside/outside combo in the country (Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins) and a talented supporting cast, they should honestly stroll to the Final Four. However, they've also shown they can be snuck up on...I mean, did you see them have to be bailed out at home...to Cornell?!

(3) Villanova
1a in terms of easy scheduling among the Top 6 has to be Jay Wright's Villanova. They've coasted out of conference and have avoided the heavy hitters so far in Big East play. And while longtime RSS fave Scottie Reynolds is still playing at an All-American level, this seems to be a much less talented bunch than last year's Final Four team. If Reynolds can do some more heavy lifting, they can stay in contention for #1 throughout the year, but that prospect looks bleak.
Short Term: Will begin to stumble once they face the likes of WVU, Pitt, Syracuse, and UConn. It will be tough for them to compete at the top of a loaded Big East with their lack of depth.
Long Term: While Reynolds is one of the toughest, and most talented guards in the country, it doesn't seem he has the supporting cast to make a deep run at MSG in the Big East tourney or in the Big Dance.

(4) Syracuse
The Orange are the highest ranked team to not have been ranked #1 so far this season, but they have a look of a team that will only get better as the season improves. With a great balance of returning players (Jackson, Onuaku, Rautins) and emerging talent (Scoop Jardine and Wesley Johnson) Syracuse is the early Big East favorite, as long as Jim Boeheim's famed 2-3 zone continues to stifle the opposition. Their comeback from an early hole against a solid GTown team suggests they have the heart to compete in what will once again be the nation's toughest conference by a mile.
Short Term: The Big East will be a battle, but they have a favorable schedule the rest of the way playing UConn and Louisville at home before traveling to Georgetown. If they win the games they're supposed to, they should be next in line after Kansas for #1 in the polls.
Long Term: Wesley Johnson has been spectacular, but they have to develop a consistent second option to succeed deep into March. Much like Villanova, they lack the depth of other elite teams who are contenders for the Final 4.

(5) Michigan St.
The Spartans have walked the tightrope to their best conference start in school history, going to 8-0 in the Big Ten with their last second win against Michigan. They also return much of the team that made it to the National Championship game last season and have played perhaps the toughest schedule in the country (vs. Florida, vs. Gonzaga, @UNC, @Texas, and an underrated Big Ten). They will be a factor in both the race for #1 in the polls, and the Final Four.
Short Term: They look due to lose a conference game, but a game at Wisconsin and two against Purdue are the only games they wouldn't be a strong favorite. A two game lead in conference should be enough to see them through to the regular season conference title.
Long Term: Their experience and depth will certainly allow them to be right in the mix for a #1 seed and a Final Four berth. Jr. Kailin Lucas should continue to become even more a driving force for this team during the Big Dance. The scariest part, Michigan St. historically doesn't even peak until March.

(6) Texas
Last, but not least, are the Texas Longhorns who have fallen from a brief cameo atop the polls to 6th thanks to losses at Kansas State and UConn. Those losses combined with other tough games out of conference should have them battle tested for the rest of the season. They also have the benefit of getting Kansas in Austin and avoiding K-State. Other than a trip to Mizzou, there doesn't seem to be any other difficult games on their schedule. A long winning streak could be in the cards for the Longhorns.
Short Term: Led by Damion James and a cast of young, talented guards and wings (sense a theme here) the Longhorns will be able to scrap their way back to another reign at #1 in the rankings. They'll fight it out with Kansas all the way in the Big 12.
Long Term: James is a great player, but Rick Barnes's teams usually seem to underperform in the tournament for some reason. If they're matched up with a team who has experienced guard play, they could be in for an early rude awakening.

So, those are the fortunes for the Top 6 as they stand. Are we missing someone else who could be a legitimate contender for #1 during the season? Let us know by leaving a comment below. Also don't forget to follow us on Twitter and join us later this week for Y1's ongoing Saints diary. Until next time, it's bye for now!

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