It's that time of year again. Spring is in the air. The Masters is coming. MLS has kicked off. The Final 4 is approaching. And... Australian Rules Football begins! Wooo! Oh, yea... and it's baseball season. As is our tradition here at RSS, we'll preview the National Pastime by giving you our Over/Under Picks for each team. First up is the American League, and as always, we tell you like it is! Let's play ball!
AL EAST
New York Yankees - Over/Under 95.5
-Ah, the Evil Empire is back! After a rough couple seasons, the Yankees are in full swing as they enter the second year of the new Yankee Stadium as defending champs. Key players like Jeter, Posada, A-Rod, and Rivera are a year older, which might be cause for concern because time catches up with everyone. Returning Joba to his 8th inning role might be the best move Joe Girardi could make. The rotation is stacked from top to bottom and the lineup appears as potent as ever with the wise addition of Curtis Granderson. Granderson will be an upgrade over the Melkman and as long as Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher give something to the cause, the Yanks should be able to get 100 wins. PICK - OVER 95.5
Boston Red Sox - Over/Under 94.5
-Everyone drools over the pitching staff with Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz, Dice-K, Wakefield, and Lester. They'll produce, but can it overcome the worst Sox lineup in a decade with lackluster new additions. Adrian Beltre (not in a contract year - 8 HRs last season)? Marco Scutaro? Mike Cameron? These moves were made because of the newest sabermetric, Baseball Prospectus, Moneyballish fad "run prevention" - you haven't heard, it's all the rage. It centers on great defense and pitching preventing runs, clever name huh? Run prevention is cited in the turnarounds in Seattle and Tampa Bay, but Boston? The only runs it will really prevent is on Boston's offense! I don't care if you are a premodern or postmodern baseball guy, taking away that kind of production from your offense and replacing it with average hitters will make the Red Sox suffer, even if they have the steel curtain playing behind them. PICK - UNDER 94.5
Tampa Bay Rays - Over/Under 89.5
-On paper, this team looks as good as the group that made the World Series two years ago. The lineup has more experience and more power. Big things are expected from BJ Upton this season to help the offense and David Price to follow through on what we saw in the 2008 ALCS. This is the team with the most to lose or gain this season. If Tampa can't pass either Boston or New York they may be forced to get rid of major contributors like Carl Crawford and go through a mini-reloading phase. Joe Maddon has the chops to recognize this and push the Rays into the 90 win mark and back to the postseason. PICK - OVER 89.5
Baltimore Orioles - Over/Under 74.5
-I'm a fan of a lot of the Orioles' young talent. Jones, Wieters and Markakis are the headliners. But, unlike say the Oklahoma City Thunder, in baseball young teams with talent are never properly rewarded. Instead, this talented group will play 70-92 ball and lose scores of games to New York, Boston, and Tampa. Of all the young teams in baseball, I like the O's lineup the best, but I wonder if they'll ever get a chance to play on a winning team in this division. PICK - UNDER 74.5
Toronto Blue Jays - Over/Under 70.5
-Hello floating realignment! Honestly, that's the best hope of this team even sniffing the playoffs in the next 20 years. To add insult to injury, the only reason to watch Blue Jays baseball is now plying his trade in Philly. Their rebuilding project is just starting. Aaron Hill is the only bright light offensively, and the only suspense to their season will be to see how Kyle Drabek performs if and when he is put into the fold. Expect the Jays to be battling for the worst record in the league. UNDER 70.5
AL Central
Minnesota Twins - Over/Under 83.5
-Everything is right in Twinkieland. Hometown hero Joe Mauer is staying home, the beautiful new outdoor ballpark will be opened, and the lineup is more potent than ever. Joe Nathan's loss will hurt, but Ron Gardenhire should find a way to work around that injury. Don't underestimate the mental power of hosting teams at Target Field early and late in the season. Teams won't be adjusted to playing in the Minnesota cold, and early word is that it is a hitter's park with the second shortest foul lines in the big leagues. This team will score many, many runs. PICK - OVER 83.5
Chicago White Sox - Over/Under 82.5
-Peavy, Buehrle, Danks and Floyd may be as good of a 1-4 as any starting rotation has in the majors. It's a fantastic mix of youth and experience, and a healthy Jake Peavy is one of the best in the biz. Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin will have to lead the offense. It will be strange to see Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones as Chi Sox, but they should be able to find enough runs to buttress their great starting pitching. It will be a great race between them and Minny that could go down to the last day of the season. OVER - 82.5
Detroit Tigers - Over/Under 80.5
-Detroit's biggest move was getting rid of Curtis Granderson. Now, they must depend on a mix of rookies, veterans, and Miguel Cabrera to provide runs. The Tigers can be encouraged by the top of the rotation with Verlander and Porcello, but who else can pitch quality innings? I can't see Detroit contending for the division crown this time round, but I can see them at least getting to 81-81 in a weak division. PICK - OVER 80.5
Cleveland Indians - Over/Under 74.5
-Oy. Has any team dropped from the precipus of the World Series to violent rebuilding mode so quickly? What happened to this team was criminal. They would be easy winners in this division with Lee, Sabathia, Martinez, and the rest of the jettisoned stars. Alas, they join countless other teams rolling the dice on potential. The pitching staff is a giant question mark after being wrecked by injuries to Westbrook and Carmona. I'd like to see the Indians do well, but it's not happening this year. PICK - UNDER 74.5
Kansas City Royals - Over/Under 71.5
-Three things in life are certain - death, taxes, and the Royals being terrible. When the first line in USA Today's preview notes improved defense as a strength... that's not a good sign. There's nothing here behind Zack Grienke. How soon before we can put him in a Yankee uniform? PICK - UNDER 71.5
AL West
Texas Rangers - Over/Under 84.5
-Surprised to see the Rangers leading off the AL West? So am I! Last year was their first over .500 since 2004, they never have good enough pitching, oh and we found out that their manager did cocaine! But, this actually seems like a really good pick for a team that won 87 games last year. A healthy Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero DHing in a hitter's paradise, and youngster Julio Borbon will make a good lineup even better. This team's pitching is a lot like the defense of the New Orleans Saints - it won't be great, but just good enough. Anything more than half of a season from Rich Harden will be a bonus too. Make no mistake, this is a team on the way up. PICK - OVER 84.5
Seattle Mariners - Over/Under 83.5
-The Mariners were one of the surprise packages of the 2009 season. They had a +24 win differential last year bouncing back from a 101 loss season. Folks will say they overachieved, but this is a team with talent. Ichiro and King Felix are now joined by Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee. You don't have to be a sabermetrician to figure out that adding one of the Top 5 pitchers in the game to your team is a good thing. But, there's the matter of the combustible answer to driving in runs... your pal and mine, Milton Bradley! Yipes. If anyone can ruin this thing it's him. Trying to predict Milton Bradley is like trying to predict our Ohio weather, nearly impossible. Here's guessing the more lax Pacific Northwest is a better fit for the volatile slugger than the fishbowl that was Wrigley Field. PICK - OVER 83.5
Los Angeles Angels - Over/Under 83.5
-The toughest pick of the division. It's easy to just check the over here because of the Angels' winning tradition, but in the words of Lee Corso not so fast my friend! Chone Figgins gone. Vlad Guerrero gone. John Lackey gone. I like the Matsui pickup, but this team is living on borrowed time by depending upon so many 30 something players. Plus, none of the bright prospects have ever really panned out to be the jawdropping phenoms we were led to believe aside from maybe Kendry Morales. They did win 97 games last year, but I just think that Seattle and Texas have made too many good moves to not pass them by. Asking them to drop 15 games is a tall task, but hey, I'm a gambling man. PICK - UNDER 83.5
Oakland A's - Over/Under 78.5
-This is one of the easiest picks. Oakland plays in a division with 3 other legit teams and they have absolutely zero run producers in their lineup. Unless it's 2001 and you consider Eric Chavez to be that guy. Their pitching and defense will be good, but not enough to overcome their tee ball power. Ben Sheets as the savior? Not a good idea. Again, Moneyball will go bankrupt this season. We'll likely hear about what a bright future this team has, and how they're smarter than everyone else, and they'll make a "great move" at the deadline. Too bad that hasn't led to wins in recent years. PICK - UNDER 78.5
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