We offered up a few surprises in our AL Over/Under Picks yesterday, and now it's time to go to the Senior Circuit and take a look at the National League. Who will be up and who will be down? Then check back this weekend for our World Series picks and award predictions. Let's play ball!
NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies - Over/Under 92
-The Phils are the overwhelming NL favorites. The offseason addition of Roy Halladay has mouths watering that he may pick up 25-30 wins in the National League. Yes, he is that good. But, as good as this week's SI cover boy is, the Phils will need two players to find their top form once again to get back to the mountaintop. Cole Hamels was a wreck last season and seemed psychologically frazzled in the postseason. Similarly, the Yanks showed the world that Ryan Howard hits a curveball like Pedro Cerrano. Nevertheless, way too much talent to not win the division and have the league's best record. PICK - OVER 92
Atlanta Braves - Over/Under 86.5
-The Braves will revert back to the formula that has served them so well in the Bobby Cox Era as the veteran skipper's time draws to a close. As much as the hype machine is in full gear for Jason Heyward, this team goes as far as its starting pitching. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson provide the potential, the veteran leadership from Derek Lowe, and a back from the dead Tim Hudson can carry this club to the Wild Card. However, that's too many ifs and too much reliance on shaky injury history - let alone the bullpen and Billy Wagner. They'll be a sentimental pick, but the smart pick is... PICK - UNDER 86.5
New York Mets - Over/Under 81
-The easiest pick in the NL. The Mets were just decimated by injuries last season. And, while it is disconcerting that Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes start the season out, but they should be back soon. A team that couldn't even crack 100 homers last year gets a big boost from the free agent addition of Jason Bay... dorky smile aside. There's no way the names on this team (Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana, Bay, K-Rod) finish another season below .500. PICK - OVER 81
Florida Marlins - Over/Under 81
-Same sad story for the Florida Marlins. A young, talented team that will be in the race for much of the season but then fade towards the end. Hanley Ramirez will put up MVP type numbers, and it should be enough to keep them above the .500 mark... but they just can't contend with the arms race going on in New York and Philadelphia. Fredi Gonzalez has had them over 84 wins the past two seasons, but with the strength in the division, it's likely that Florida falls this year. PICK - UNDER 81
Washington Nationals - Over/Under 72
-Hello Yard Yoder. If he were here I would ask him what excites him the most about the upcoming season. And no, Stephen Strasburg doesn't count. And... neither does the Next Big Thing Bryce Harper. On the field Opening Day what excites the Washington fanbase? Is it Adam Dunn's OPS? Nyler Morgan? Somebody that might get an out? The future might be bright in Washington... let's just hope that whole 2012 apocalypse passes us by. UNDER 72
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals - Over/Under 88
-Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, and Carpenter are enough on their own to win this division. I'm skeptical on the playoff prospects with the Cards because it seems that other NL teams have made better moves in the offseason while St. Louis' biggest splash was getting an ex-roided up slugger to come in as their hitting coach. Still, behind Pujols and a strong pitching 1,2 punch, the Cards should once again top a weak division. PICK - OVER 88
Chicago Cubs - Over/Under 83
-Oh, my brother's Cubbies. The best move by any team in the offseason was their dump of Milton Bradley for a living, breathing human being. The Cubs are one of several teams depending on bouncebackability from many veterans. Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, and Zambrano all dealt with injuries, poor form, or emotional trauma in '09. Xavier Nady and Marlon Byrd come into the fold in the outfield as well. For once, the Cubbies enter a season under the radar, and that's a very good thing. They'll challenge for the division and wild card births. OVER - 83
Milwaukee Brewers - Over/Under 80.5
-Milwaukee always seems like the square peg trying to fit in the round hole. For as good as they've been the latter half of this decade, and as much promise as they've shown... they've had 1 postseason birth via the '08 Wild Card and a quiet first round exit. Again this season it seems like a similar plot will play out. This team's pitching will be its downfall with the most mediocre pitching staff in the majors. Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, and Jeff Suppan don't scream excellence. With the team below on the rise, Milwaukee dips beneath 80 wins. PICK - UNDER 80.5
Cincinnati Reds - Over/Under 78
-Finally, this looks like the year that the Reds will break through. For the first time since Jose Rijo and Tom Browning, the Reds might have a competent pitching staff - woo hoo! Aaron Harang has ace capabilities if healthy, Bronson Arroyo is a solid innings getter, and the potential of Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman will lift the league's oldest team back to its winning ways. While the offense isn't the Big Red Machine, guys like Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips get the job done. A surprise contender in 2010. PICK - OVER 78
Houston Asrtos - Over/Under 77
-This is a team caught in baseball purgatory. One that desperately needs to rebuild, but oen that has enough older stars to talk themselves into contending this season. Houston hello... it ain't happening this season. Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt are much more likely to be July trade bait than leading the Astros to a pennant. This team finished last season on an extended losing streak, and they'll pick up right where they left off. Perhaps the easiest under pick of them all. PICK - UNDER 77
Pittsburgh Pirates - Over/Under 71
-Oh wait! But, there's always the Pittsburgh Pirates! Ha Ha (in sinister Gus Johnson voice). The Pirates have suffered through 17 straight losing seasons, and they seem committed to keeping that streak intact. They haven't reached even 70 wins since 2004! Every good player that has come through the Steel City in the past decade has been traded away for the next wave of youngsters. The only drama for Pirates fans is betting on when and where Andrew McCutchen leaves. PICK - UNDER 71.5
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers - Over/Under 84
-Surprised to see the Dodgers sitting atop the Vegas picks for the NL West. Although they won 95 games last season, this is a team that has plenty of question marks. Can Manny stay away from women's fertility drugs? Will they find a true ace? Can they break through the Phillies jinx? Has the rest of the NL West passed them by? While they won't win the division (hey, we gotta save something for our WS picks to find out who!), they'll certainly get above 84 wins thanks to the young core of Kemp, Ethier, and Loney. PICK - OVER 84
San Francisco Giants - Over/Under 83
-This team is the reverse of the Phoenix Suns. They are so dependent on their pitching that it's not even funny. The Giants ranked last in OPS last season (hey, how bout that to the kids that worship Bill James, I used an OPS stat!) and there's no moves that inspire an offensive awakening except for the vastly underrated Mark Derosa being slotted anywhere on the diamond. Lincecum and Cain are an automatic pick for the Over even if Randy Winn and Edgar Renteria are two of your sluggers. PICK - OVER 83
Colorado Rockies - Over/Under 83
-This is another team to watch out West. Troy Tulowitzki is next in line for the new kid on the block as the best player in baseball. They finished 20-11 to steal the Wild Card and enter the playoffs for the second year in a row. Although Rocktober didn't repeat itself, Colorado is built to contend consistently. They play to their strengths at Coors Field. The one thing that will help the Rocks more than anything is one more good season out of Todd Helton. Like the other top contenders in the West - an easy pick. PICK - OVER 83
Arizona Diamondbacks - Over/Under 81
-Hard to fathom what Vegas sees to project an 11 game jump for the D-Backs in a stacked NL West. It's not like this team has a Top 5 pitcher that sat out all last season waiting to return to full strength... oh, wait, they do? And I stole him in the late rounds in my fantasy draft? Chaching! Brandon Webb hopes to return to his dominant self... and yet, I'm still bearish about the D-Backs hopes when looking at the teams above them. They might enter the scrap, but the safer pick is under. PICK - UNDER 81
San Diego Padres - Over/Under 71
-I have nothing enlightening to say about the Padres except that they'll be bad. Hey, give me a break, I've been at this for over 2 hours. You should be thanking me people! PICK - UNDER 71
Speaking of work, I'm contemplating a live Final 4 blog tomorrow. We'll see how many annoying Clark Kellogg euphemisms we'll hear from Indy and how inspired I'm feeling tomorrow afternoon. Ah, yes, and don't forget our World Series and award projections coming soon, only at RSS!
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