Regardless of who wins the East and the NBA, it's going to be a fun season in Cleveland to see what hijinx the NBA's two most prestigious showman (pictured above) can pull off this season. But, ShaqBron isn't the only huge story in the NBA's Eastern Conference. Will the Celts rebound? Will Vinsanity take over the Magic? How bout the Pistons and the Bulls? Oh, yea, and there's the Knicks. Time to give you our What Are The Odds Over/Under picks for the Eastern Conference in our 2nd part of RSS's 3 part NBA Preview.
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers- Over/Under 61.5 wins
Y2: There's almost no way the Cavs can match their 40-2 home record of last season, with or without the addition of Shaq. There has to be an adjustment period to playing with the Big Aristotle. For 4 years, Cleveland's offense has been give the ball to LeBron, set a high screen, and get out of his way. That's going to be significantly harder with 350 pounds taking up the paint. Shaq and Anderson Varejao (the recipient of a ridiculous long-term deal, setting the standard for energy players who can't score) won't exactly be playing the pick and pop game that was so effective between LeBron and Big Z. All you need to do is see how long it took Steve Nash to adjust to the presence of Shaq on the court...oh yeah, he never did. Also, I'm not convinced Anthony Parker is the answer to finding a bigger backcourt scorer to be the Pippen to LBJ's Jordan. The off-court issues of Delonte West don't help matters either. Finally, don't discount the loss of assistant coach John Kuester, who was credited with the improvement of the Cavs offense. Time for a bold predicion. UNDER 61.5
Y1: Cleveland racked up an impressive 66 wins last season, without Shaq in the middle. While the big man ain't what he used to be, expect him to do all he can to give LeBron that first title. Their homecourt advantage will be just as strong as ever, and the King will be just as strong as ever too. This team is certainly on the way up, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them approach 70 wins with only 2 real challengers in the East. OVER 61.5
(2) Orlando Magic - Over/Under 57.5 wins
In my opinion, this is the easiest call of the bunch in the Eastern Conference. Hedo Turkoglu created so many mismatches because he could score, but he could also play point forward so effectively, finding Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard. Does anyone think Vince Carter can fill those shoes? I thought not. Also remember, it was Hedo who took all of the big shots for the Magic coming down the stretch. Who here recognizes Vince Carter as a clutch player? I thought not. So, we've established they will be losers on that trade, but the move that will compound their mistake was trading away Courtney Lee. Lee was the perfect compliment to the rest of the Magic because he could defend and make open shots. Add these bonehead moves to the combustible situation between Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy that was never really addressed last season, and I foresee a dropoff for the defending Eastern Conference Champs. UNDER 57.5
The defending East Champions will now have the target on their back this year. Dwight Howard is a monster, but Vince Carter will be the center of attention this seaso in Orlando. The Vinsanity/Hedo swap could easily be the best or worst move of the offseason. On one hand, Turkoglu's unique skill set helped define the Magic and created mismatches against the other 29 NBA teams. However, Vince Carter is still a special talent... if he's motivated. It's always tough to judge Vinsanity, but he might be good enough to get 60 wins over the course of the season. Then, in the postseason, we'll find out what a bad deal that was for Orlando. OVER 57.5
(3) Boston Celtics - Over/Under 56.5 wins
Finally, Y1 and I can agree on something. Full disclosure first, I have been a Celtics fan ever since turning on the NBA full-time in 2001, mostly because I am one of the few people outside of Boston who loved Tommy Heinsohn as a broadcaster. On the court though, the Celtics look to be back and better than ever. The free-agent signing of 'Sheed garnered more national attention, but the signing of Marquis Daniels will finally fill the role James Posey did so admirably during their title run. Not only can he compliment Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, he can also play some point to spell Rondo. 'Sheed will also be able to stretch the floor more than Big Baby Davis or Kendrick Perkins. But, the team's title hopes will rest only on the health of KG. If he can be back anywhere close to full strength, the C's are easily over...fingers crossed, now. OVER 56.5 wins
This is an easy call. Nobody takes the regular season as seriously in the NBA elites as the Celtics. Much of that comes from the emotional leadership of KG, who's knee injury cost Boston a 2nd straight title. The additions of Marquis Daniels and Sheed greatly improve the depth of this team, but the key will be the health of the Big 3. Garnett, Allen, and Pierce willl give it all they have to get the East #1 seed and homecourt advantage. They won't pass Cleveland, but they'll come very close. OVER 56.5
(4) Atlanta Hawks - Over/Under 44.5 wins
I like the Atlanta Hawks and what they've been building over the last few seasons. They made it to the 2nd round last year, and will definitely contend to make it back. But, there's something about the collection of personalities that seems unstable. Maybe it's the lack of belief in Mike Woodson as a head coach? Maybe it's the the skepticism of signing Jamal Crawford to play a significant role on a young team, or the inconsistency of Josh Smith? But, the talent in the starting five is undeniable. They will be able to continue improving, somehow keep Mike Woodson his job, and win 45 games. OVER 44.5
Here is where our task becomes hard. The Atlanta Hawks?? 4th in the East? Really? I like Joe Johnson, Horford and the rest, but has this team reached its peak at 4th in the Conference? It's a giant leap from where they are to the top 3, and I don't see much room for improvement with this roster. Chicago has more potential, Detroit has made better offseason moves, Washington is healthier, which means the ATL is sliding down the East ladder. UNDER 44.5
(5) Detroit Pistons - Over/Under 41.5 wins
Y1 will try to spin you some fancy tale about the revival of the Pistons this year. Somehow, this team is going to reinvent itself as a faster-paced, higher scoring version of the Pistons we've seen? I doubt it. Ben Gordon and Charlie Villenueva aren't exactly going to be fighting each other for Defensive Player of the Year any time soon. And why doesn't anyone think Ben Gordon backing up Rip Hamilton won't have the same negative effects as Allen Iverson's presence did last year. The Pistons signed Gordon to a lot of money, I don't see how he'll be content with coming off the bench in Detroit. Couple that with this little doozy, the starting center for the Pistons...Kwame. Brown. You may remember him from our Top 10 Flops of the Decade. Still think this team is going to finish above .500? UNDER 41.5 wins
For me, this is the cinch pick of the East. I'm shocked at how many of the experts are down on Detroit coming into this season. Did they miss that C's/Bulls series when Ben Gordon was the best player on the court? It'll be interesting to see how he is thrown into the mix with Rip and Stuckey, but in a league that's increasingly driven by backcourt play the Pistons have strength in that area. A mix of vets with winning experience and new guys like Gordon and twitterer Charlie Villanueva will combine to move Detroit to 4th in the East. OVER 41.5
(6) Toronto Raptors - Over/Under 41.5 wins
Toronto should be able to capitalize on the signing of Hedo Turkoglu to cement a playoff spot. Every one of their moves in the offseason improved this team from last season's crop. They've
easily gotten more athletic and more talented, which will aid Bryan Colangelo's vision of a Canadian version of the Suns-lite. Let's also not forget another similarity between the Raptors and the Suns...Chris Bosh, contract year. Enough said. They will surprise many and fight Atlanta for the last home-court seed in the East. OVER 41.4
The Raps only won 33 games last year, so this would be a jump, but with Turkoglu and Bosh you have to think that this team can finish above .500. The uptempo, culturally ecclectic style of ball is a hit north of the border and they'll win games over the course of the year with their offense. Additionally, with Chris Bosh going into the Summer of 10 looking for a contract, him and the team will try to fire on all cylinders. OVER 41.5
(7) Washington Wizards - Over/Under 41.5 wins
Boy, will it be an interesting year in the nation's capital. Not only do you add a couple of helpful backcourt assets in Mike Miller and Randy Foye, but hopefully, hopefully you get Gilbert Arenas spending more time focusing on his game than his blog. Speaking of blogs, now would be a good time to mention one of our contributors, Yard Yoder has started his own Wizards blog, Agent Dagger. If you have to ask why Agent Dagger, you obviously aren't a big Wizards fan, but I digress. Despite the wackiness of this team, they do have some proven All-Star talent and Flip Saunders looking for redemption. It will be enough to get them back in the playoffs, but I can't see getting back to .500 after only 19 wins last year. UNDER 41.5 wins
Speaking of big jumps, this is the biggest leap by Vegas to put a 19 win team at an over/under of 41.5. Of course, adding Mike Miller and Randy Foye and getting that Arenas guy healthy is good cause for optimism. Evidently Agent Zero is going to be more focused this season. They have the roster to easily surpass .500 with those guys and Butler and Jamison. I'll take the over, but this picture and this link should cause any Wizards fan, or fan of sane humanity to take pause. Yes, that's our 16th President, on some dude's neck. And, it's permanent. OVER 41.5
(8) Philadelphia 76ers - Over/Under 41.5 wins
Philly does have some intriguing pieces in place this season after their surprise 41-41 record last season. I am actually optimistic on the 76ers this year, even with the loss of Andre Miller. The hiring of Eddie Jordan should help continue the decision Philly made last year to go to a more up-tempo, run and gun style. People blew out of proportion the trouble Elton Brand was having adjusting back to the Eastern Conference. Brand is one of the few players in the league who is a guarantee for 20 and 10 if he's completely healthy. Sure he doesn't have the same skill set as Antawan Jamison, who Jordan coached in Washington, but I think he can thrive once again if everyone treats last year as a mulligan. Thaddeus Young could also be a breakout player this year as he showed a lot of explosiveness and scoring ability last season. OVER 41.5
Sell, sell, sell. Yes, I'm a big fan of Elton Brand, but the Sixers actually played better without him last season. Philly is another team that is counting on the improvement of their youth to lead their team. Not reupping Andre Miller leaves a void at the point and I'm not sure that Philly can keep up with their East counterparts who have added pieces and improved in the offseason. At least the classic Dr. J unis are back! UNDER 41.5
(9) Chicago Bulls - Over/Under 40.5 wins
Everyone needs to calm down a little bit about the Bulls. Keep in mind this isn't the first year the "Baby Bulls" were expected to make the jump up the Eastern Conference ladder. But, no one can doubt how well they played in last year's first round, whether the Celtics had KG or not. The team showed energy and heart against a veteran, championship team. With the continued development of Derrick Rose and the return of a healthy Luol Deng, the Bulls shouldn't miss any of Ben Gordon's scoring punch. But during last year's playoffs, I was most impressed with the development of Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah. While they'll never be 20-10 guys, they provide the energy that will carry this team through the regular season. OVER 40.5
This is another Over/Under stunner. The Baby Bulls that everyone loved last April are now sitting on the outside looking in at Vegas' postseason picks? They do lose Ben Gordon back, but Luol Deng is healthy, Brad Miller is there for a whole season, and Derrick Rose is another year into the league. They won't shoot up the ladder in the East, I'd be under 46 or 47, but 40? They'll join teams like Toronto, Washington, and Detroit as solidly above .500. OVER 40.5
(10) Miami Heat - Over/Under 40.5 wins
Talk about a team ready for a big dropoff, it's the Miami Heat. There's no doubting D Wade is an MVP caliber superstar. But, who does he have around him that can support his scoring. Their somewhat miraculous run last year came down to D Wade doing everything for this team, and I don't think he'll be able to shoulder that load for a second straight season. Jermaine O'Neal is wayyy over the hill at a young age and with the off-court troubles of Michael Beasley, it's hard to find a second scorer on this team. If that's the case, it might be 50/50 at best if D Wade will be back in South Beach after this season. UNDER 40.5
This is the toughest call perhaps. D Wade is fantastic, but their recent #1 pick has been in and out of rehab, not a good sign for your franchise. Tough to remember that they got 43 wins last season and a #5 seed in the East. Wade's greatness might be enough to sneak out a playoff spot this season, but Miami will be closer to their '07-'08 form than last season with a very weak supporting cast. UNDER 40.5
(11) Charlotte Bobcats - Over/Under 37.5 wins
The Charlotte Bobcats are like a poor man's Houston Texans, an expansion team that fools people into thinking this is the year they finally make the postseason...that is, until you watch them play. The UNC pipeline established by the Bobcats might have worked better in the days of Jordan the player, Worthy and Perkins instead of Felton and May. Add to that a lackluster supporting cast whose best player is who exactly? Boris Diaw? I liked him better as the 5th best player on the Suns. Gerald Wallace? Maybe if I'm picking a Slam Dunk Contest. Tyson Chandler? He won't look quite as effective when he's not on the other end of Chris Paul's alley-oops. In other words, the playoffs in Charlotte will have to wait another year. UNDER 37.5
Larry Brown's magic won't be enough to get the city of Charlotte to the postseason. Maybe it's that certain #23 sitting in the luxury suites that is the biggest obstacle for Charlotte to overcome. It's not that easy to try and talk yourself into Charlotte improving and overtaking teams in the East. They are one of those teams that you have to wonder what exactly their plan is to win games. Does anyone have an idea? Anyone? Bueller? UNDER 37.5
(12) Indiana Pacers - Over/Under 34.5 wins
The Pacers are another team whose moves I question. Are they a team who's really looking to get better? Or, are they looking to appeal to their wholesome, midwest fan base. I do think Jim O'Brien and his staff do one of the underrated coaching jobs in the league getting this team to play as hard as they do. Danny Granger would also be one of the up and coming young stars in the league if he played in a better market or on a better team. But, what's around them doesn't impress me much. Guys like Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, Jeff Foster, Tyler Hansborough, would be good as role players on a better team. But, in the roles they have to play on the Pacers, this team will be outmatched for much of the season. UNDER 34.5
You'll hear a lot this season about the Indiana Pacers as a "hard-working" team, one with a lot of gumption, one that will "play tough night in and night out". Why? Well, it could be that they are the whitest team in the league and people feed off racial stereotypes, but that's another topic for another day. On the court, Indy is going to struggle. I like Danny Granger and Murphy as players, but neither are good enough to carry a team filled good college players out of the lottery. UNDER 34.5
(13) New York Knicks - Over/Under 31.5 wins
Time for my surprise pick of the East...the Knicks won't be terrible! No, don't start flooding the streets of Times Square yet. The Knicks still aren't ready to make the postseason. But, there's no doubting the quality of Mike D'Antoni as a coach or Donnie Walsh as a GM. Sure, it's a bit of a stretch...but if there's one coach who can literally Free Darko, it's Mike D'Antoni. I also see him being able to maximize the ability of his mismatched roster to eke out that 32nd win. OVER 31.5
Oh, the Knicks. The most interesting tidbit about the Knicks preseason was a rabbi coming on the court in a preseason game against an Israeli team when its head coach wouldn't leave the court. The Knicks should have signed the rabbi to a contract, maybe he could play better defense than this bunch. New York is just looking ahead to 2010, that includes the fans and the roster. UNDER 31.5
(14) New Jersey Nets - Over/Under 28.5 wins
Across the river, things aren't looking so bright for the Stalingrad Nets...oh yeah, forgot the fall of the Soviet Union. Anyway, all the Russian oil money and women won't be able to buy this team into a respectable roster. There's one guy I would take from their roster, and that's Devin Harris. Other than that, you're looking at a lot of mediocrity. There were some signs of promise from Brook Lopez on the box, but he's not one of the East's top centers, yet. I also like the addition of Courtney Lee in the backcourt as a blossoming young talent. But, that's about it, unless I could get in on some of the sales the Nets are making in China off of Yi. UNDER 28.5
Speaking of looking ahead to 2010... I hate to break it to the New Jersey/Brooklyn/Whatever you want to be Nets, but you aren't getting LeBron. With the improved depth in the East, there's nothing here that makes you think they won't be in the bottom 2 or 3 of the Eastern Conference. As long as there aren't any Russian cold war like transpirings like you see in the movies, this team ain't winning a lot of ballgames. UNDER 28.5
(15) Milwaukee Bucks - Over/Under 25.5 wins
Ok, let's be honest, Milwaukee is bad. But, they won't be as bad as everyone thinks. Even after losing Richard Jefferson and Charlie Villenueva, they made underrated additions in Hakim Warrick and Kurt Thomas. A healthy Michael Redd should also do this team wonders...if they don't trade him midway through the season. It'll be a rough year for the Bucks, but it won't be as bad as under 25 wins. OVER 25.5
It's not a time to be optimistic in Milwaukee. Yes, Michael Redd comes back, but you also lose your top 3 scorers from last season. Outside of the former Buckeye, who is their on this roster that can win a game? Joe Alexander?? I don't think so. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a contender came calling for #22 and the Bucks become a candidate for the first tank job in the NBA. UNDER 25.5
Check out RSS as we'll look ahead to the football weekend and then be back before the NBA season tips off with our Finals predictions. And please, if you want to get any dead presidents tattooed on your body, please see a psychiatrist near you. We care about our readers. Bye for now!
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