Don't be frightened by the Kobe face children, the NBA season is back and better than ever! We here at RSS plan on devoting a lot of attention to what should be the most competitive, entertaining NBA seasons in years. In the first of our 3 part preview, we'll go through the Western Conference over/under win totals. After that will be the East, then tune back in before the start of the season to find out who will be hoisting the...um, well, whatever the name of the NBA Championship trophy is.
(1) L.A. Lakers- Over/Under 62.5 wins
Y2: The defending champs decided to throw out the status quo by acquiring certified resident of bizzaro world Ron Artest. Exhibit A: Artest will be donning the #37 for the Lakers because Thriller was #1 on the charts for 37 weeks...really? Wow, and I thought I had issues with my devotion to sports, I wouldn't be surprised if this guy pulls out a white sequined glove and slaps Jack Nicholson! The tradeoff of Artest for Trevor Ariza was puzzling, not only because of Artest's documented disruptions to teams, but because Ariza really seemed to be blossoming within the triangle. Add that to the persistent doubts over Andrew Bynum's health, and all of a sudden a repeat isn't a sure thing. Still, without any true competitors in the West, the Lakers should eclipse 62.5 wins. OVER 62.5 wins
Y1: Well, this is fairly easy isn't it? The only thing that would stop the Lakers from getting at least 63 wins would be the laid back attitude of the west coast. The Lakers are the best team in the West by a long shot and I'll be shocked if they don't get the #1 seed. Of course, there is the possibility of Artest going nuts and attacking Larry David in the stands (wouldn't that be a perfect Curb Your Enthusiasm episode!), but they'll rack up a ton of wins regardless. OVER 62.5
(2) San Antonio Spurs - Over/Under 54.5 wins
Y2: The Spurs have the next highest projection at 54.5 wins. They were able to pick up 54 last season with a banged up Tim Duncan and Tony Parker while Manu Ginobili was MIA for most of the season. The offseason pickups of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess have been revered, but I'm not so sure it will pay off in the playoffs. McDyess has been a capable role player in Detroit the last few years, but he's not an impact signing. But in the regular season, Jefferson will be able to buoy the team when Ginobili misses his usual amount of games. For that reason, I'll go over. OVER 54.5 wins
The Jefferson move is the most underrated and possibly the best of the offseason. Over the long run it'll be huge for San Antonio and let them coast to a #2 seed in the West. Watch out for Pitt animal DaJuan Blair as well as Tim Duncan's wingman, at least he'll get to gobble up Hasheem Thabeet some more. OVER 54.5
(3) Portland Trail Blazers - Over/Under 52.5 wins
Y2: At third in the West, the oddsmakers have put Portland at 53.5 wins. This surprised me until I found out Portland actually had 54 wins last year, who knew? The signing of PG Andre Miller is underrated because Miller makes his teammates better. If the Blazers taught us anything last year, it's that the the sum is greater than the talent of the parts. While that got them nowhere in the postseason, it should help another regular season, around their success of last year. OVER 52.5 wins
I was a little surprised too at Portland's win total from last season. Brandon Roy is on his way to superstardom and their cast of young players is by far the best in the league. They should get about 55 wins this season, but Portland's fate going forward will depend on whether the Big Fragile (properly pronounced fra-gee-lay) can step up and provide any contribution. OVER 52.5
(4) Denver Nuggets - Over/Under 52.5 wins
Y2: Ah, now we'll finally be allowed to let my pessimistic side shine through with the Denver Nuggets. They blossomed last year under the leadership of Chauncey Billips, but this team seems prime for a letdown. They didn't make any moves to keep up with other title contenders; no, Renaldo Balkman is not going to make a difference and they will regret letting go of Linas Kleiza. Denver also won't be able to count on the same production from big men Nene (2nd last year in FG%) and Chris Andersen. Above all, the most combustible element in Denver's season is the relationship between Carmelo Anthony and George Karl. These two will continue to grate on each other and their record will suffer. UNDER 52.5 wins
Well, this is going to be extremely close to the number. The bro has got it mostly right, but there are enough bad teams that the Nugs will be able to rack up wins throughout the season with their high powered offense. The top teams around the NBA have all surpassed them while Denver has made minimal improvements. If I could push, I would, but I say Denver barely makes it above the number. OVER 52.5
(5) Utah Jazz - Over/Under 49.5 wins
Y2: This might be one of the most puzzling over/unders around the league. Utah will definitely have to overachieve to reach 50 wins this season. The team created a major headache by failing to trade PF Carlos Boozer and resigning blossoming PF Paul Milsap to an offer sheet. Outside of Deron WIlliams though, does anyone on this team really scare other teams in the league? AK 47 fills up the stat sheet, but has battled inconsistency and injury for a couple seasons. The Jazz have also still failed to add a potent backcourt scorer next to Williams, sorry to crush those hoping for a fantasy breakout season from Ronnie Brewer. The Jazz will do what they do every year, win 45-50 games and get beat in the 1st round of the playoffs. UNDER 49.5 wins
Utah will be down this season. The Millsap/Boozer dynamic isn't promising for the Jazz. Do you really expect Carlos Boozer to go out and play at an All-NBA level while desiring to play elsewhere? The Jazz might even struggle to make it into the postseason this year, that is unless Kosta Koufos breaks out and becomes Dirk Nowitzki, ha ha ha. UNDER 49.5
(6) Dallas Mavericks - Over/Under 48.5 wins
Y2: This is a team that has seemed to be fighting split-personality disorder ever since they lost in the NBA Finals to Miami (coincidence knowing who their owner is, you be the judge). They want to continue to play up-tempo basketball, so they trade for Jason Kidd and now sign free agent Shawn Marion. But, they want to be better defensively, so they try to instill some toughness into Dirk Nowitzki and hire Rick Carlisle as coach. Predictably, the results were mixed last year, although they won 50 games. You can expect much the same this year as their will certainly be an adjustment period for all of these puzzle pieces to fit together. Here's betting the Mavs start slow, but come on strong in the 2nd half to win 50 games again, barely. OVER 48.5 wins
I don't see a Dallas revival coming any time soon. This will be the year that Mark Cuban will want to blow up the Mavs. While Dirk is still a Top 15 player, Josh Howard has proved that he's not a player you want to build a franchise around, Marion's skills have diminished, and J-Kidd is another year older. Dallas could languish around .500 all year long. UNDER 48.5
(7) New Orleans Hornets - Over/Under 46.5 wins
Y2: The Hornets are another team who will have to adjust to a shuffled frontcourt after their trade of Tyson Chandler to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor. Will Okafor help the style the Hornets like to play...I don't think so. The Hornets are best when Chris Paul is creating for his teammates to score at an up-tempo pace. Okafor seems to have established himself as more of a traditional, back-to-the-basket scorer, so his game doesn't seem to mesh as well with Paul as Chandler's athletic ability. Further, if Peja Stojakovich isn't healthy all season, New Orleans loses any and all threat from the perimeter. While the Okafor move may pay benefits in the long run, the team's win total will take another dip this season. UNDER 46.5 wins
Chris Paul by his lonesome is good enough to get to 47 wins. I actually like the Okafor move as it will give New Orleans a more consistent presence on the inside. Sure, Byron Scott is still the coach, and that's a lot to overcome, but CP3 is so good, he'll get New Orleans close to 50 wins. OVER 46.5
(8) Phoenix Suns - Over/Under 41.5 wins
Y2: The sun has most assuredly set on Phoenix's title window (get it, sun...setting, oh!), but with Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, this team will again make the playoffs, despite Steve Kerr's best efforts to be relegated into the NBDL. One of the more underrated signings of the offseason had to be the Suns pickup of Channing Frye, who's ability to shoot and run the floor should add a dimension to Phoenix's fast break not seen since the departure of Shawn Marion. Don't discount the freedom Nash and co. will once again have to play fast and loose without the burden of feeding the Big Whatever. But, the #1 one reason for Phoenix's success this season comes down to 4 words...Amare Stoudemire, contract extension...need I say more? OVER 41.5 wins
Buy, buy, buy Phoenix at over 40.5. Boy, that Shaq in the desert era lasted long. I think his Shaq vs show is more successful. Do you really think that this team will finish under .500? The freedom of not having to feed the ball into Shaq along with Alvin Gentry leading the charge back to a more uptempo game means Phoenix should sneak back into the postseason as long as Nash and Amare are healthy. They'll get the over, but Kerr has been an atrocious GM. Maybe Steve should go back to sitting with Marv Albert before he becomes the NBA's Matt Millen. OVER 41.5
(9) Houston Rockets - Over/Under 35.5 wins
Y2: So how many wins is Yao Ming really worth? In one of my first columns for this wonderful blog, I opined about a team, and league without Yao Ming. Yao's ability to return period is still up in the air, but we know he won't be back this season. So where does that leave the Rockets? It certainly puts them on the outside looking in to the playoff picture out west. The Rockets made no moves to fill the void left by Yao, and will have to man the paint with unheralded role players like Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes. T-Mac will still miss the first month of the season, and if he does return, will be a shadow of his former self. Maybe the Rockets should start playing their lotto numbers now, you know, for practice. UNDER 35.5 wins
Wow, I thought about putting the Rockets at Over the number, but reading that paragraph I'm convinced that I can't. Without Yao and T-Mac, who is left for this team? Granted, the role players in Houston play their roles well, but geesh, they can't carry a team for 82 games. Trevor Ariza will be solid, but unspectacular, just like the Rockets this season. T-Mac's fall will be complete as the Rockets shoot their way into the lottery. UNDER 35.5
(10) OKC Thunder - Over/Under 35.5 wins
Y2: This pick isn't the slam dunk one would initially think (ok, ok, I'll back off the clever puns). The Thunder are primed to be this season's breakout team, led by future All-Star Kevin Durant. He increased his scoring 5 PPG up to 25 last season, and should see a similar bump this season. Pair him with other young guns Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook (not James Harden, who we predicted in this space would be a bust over the summer) and it's easy to see why the Thunder showed signs of improvement. Don't underestimate a full year of playing with a competent big man as well, Nenad Krstic has always been skilled around the basket and will provide good balance. Still, because I know I need to temper Y1's excitement, and because a jump of 12 wins is a lot, I'll go barely under for the Thunder. UNDER 35.5 wins
How can you not be excited Y2? This is an easy pick... for the over! How could you not love this team in this spot? In OKC, I find my biggest beef with Y2's West picks. Durant, Green, and Westbrook are an exciting young nucleus, and the Thunder won some games down the stretch. Don't overlook their good finish as a springboard into this season. Of course, James Harden won't be a star, but maybe he'll be able to fill a supporting role well. Kevin Durant is ready to explode into that next level of the very elite of the NBA (just see his HORSE performance at All-Star Weekend) and the Thunder will continue to roll. OVER 35.5
(11) Golden State Warriors - Over/Under 35.5 wins
Y2: One of these lotto teams has to make it above 34.5 wins, so why not Golden State? Sure, Steven Jackson has been channeling Ron Artest in the offseason, demanding trades, getting ejected in preseason games, etc. Monta Ellis says he doesn't think he can play with Stephen Curry, the team can't play defense, etc. But, this is the mad scientist we're talking about with Don Nelson. If any coach can take a mismatched bunch of malcontents and turn them into a run and gun machine, it's Nellie. There's still talent on this squad, and I think they will be able to outscore enough opponents to win 35 games. OVER 35.5 wins
Why not Golden State?? Because their starting backcourt can't get on the rides at Cedar Point. Because Nellie might as well be in "F it, I don't care anymore, so I might as well take all the crazy ideas I've had for the past 30 years and try it this season" mode. And last but not least, because Stephen Jackson is your captain. Captain. Stephen. Jackson. Oy. UNDER 35.5
(12) L.A. Clippers - Over/Under 34.5 wins
Y2: The other team in L.A. has the first legitimate hope for long-term success since the drafting of Michael Olowakandi (oh, rimshot!) with the arrival of Blake Griffin. While Griffin's messianic status remains to be season, the Clippers are still a couple years away from threatening for the playoffs. Even if Baron Davis plays like Baron Davis the All-Star instead of Baron Davis the movie producer, this team will have a ceiling as long as Mike Dunleavy is still in charge on the bench. Getting rid of perennial malcontent Zach Randolph won't be enough to make the Clippers gel as a team this year. UNDER 34.5 wins
The Clippers will get above 35 wins for one reason, and one reason only, they dumped Zach Randolph!! How on earth would there be anyone left in the NBA who would want this guy on their team?? Oh, yes, Chris Wallace is running a team again. See the best piece of writing from 2009 about the Randolph-Dunleavy Era from Bill Simmons. While it's not encouraging for the Clips that Dunleavy still runs things, adding the Beast and dumping Zach gets two huge thumbs up. OVER 34.5
(13) Minnesota T'Wolves - Over/Under 27.5 wins
Y2: Let me make this disclaimer, I love, love, love Al Jefferson. Ever since he was drafted by the Celtics, Big Al has shown a feel for the game and knack for scoring in the post well beyond his years. But...is there anyone else on the team to support him? Certainly, the T'Wolves will get a big boost from drafting Ricky Rubio...oh yeah, he's in Spain for the next 2 years. Well, at least the T'Wolves spent their other Top 10 pick on a capable scorer, or complimentary big man...oh, they drafter another point guard in Jonny Flynn. Well then, looks like another rough year in Minnesota. UNDER 27.5 wins
Speaking of Bill Simmons, is it bad when the first 3 google entries for "TWolves GM" involve Bill Simmons? David Kahn seems like he's trying to outsmart the NBA with his Rubio masterpiece. Another rough year in Minny might be an understatement. How long into Minnesota's season before you hear, "Oh well, at least the Minny fans have Brett Favre, right?" I'll give it until October 31st. UNDER 27.5
(14) Memphis Grizzlies - Over/Under 25.5 wins
Y2: We're really into the dregs now as we've hit the Memphis Grizzlies. Where's Hubie Brown when you need him? If only the Grizz had someone who could score in the painted area, because it certainly won't be rookie Hasheem Thabeet. They did lose out by being left holding onto Zach Randolph, who will get his own stats, but won't help the team win. Speaking of getting stats, there seem to be a lot of those guys on Memphis with the likes of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Allen Iverson. It's going to be a long, complicated year for the Grizz, with not a lot of wins to show for it. UNDER 27.5 wins
Memphis is going to struggle. A lot. UNDER 27.5
(15) Sacramento Kings - Over/Under 24.5 wins
Y2: Finally, we've officially hit the bottom of the barrel in the West with the Sacramento Kings. It's a good bet Kings owners Joe and Gavin Maloof won't be betting the over on the Kings this season with the least-talented roster in the league. Tyreke Evans would be a candidate for Rookie of the Year if he played on any other team. The Kings are led by Kevin Martin, the most unorthodox 25 PPG scorer you'll ever see because he has to be for this team. Aside from Martin and Evans, no one on this team would crack the starting five of any playoff contender...bad news for a fan base with a tenuous hold on their team. UNDER 23.5 wins
For being at the bottom of the Western Conference pile, this is actually a tough pick. 23-59 is a bad, bad season. But, will the Kings be that bad? I'm not so sure. I like the Evans/Martin dynamic and Jason Thompson on the inside is one of the most unknown good players in the league. I'm not sure that picking the Over on all of these teams is mathematically possible, but I didn't graduate with a math degree or anything... oh, wait, I did... eh, whatever. OVER 23.5
Tune in tomorrow as we'll come back to the East for our Odds preview! See you above the rim!
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