Saturday, March 27, 2010

NCAA Saturday Elite 8 Picks and Friday Recap

While Friday night spelled the end of some Cinderella runs, there was still some good basketball on display. So who were the winners and losers? What moments will we remember last night for years to come? For all your NCAA Tournament needs, you came to the right place!

1) Biggest Winner - Tennessee
-Clearly, the biggest winner last night was the Volunteers, who beat Ohio State to make their first Elite 8 in school history. While coach Bruce Pearl gets more attention for his body painting escapades, the guy is actually a pretty good coach. And, the way he's rallied his team after an off-court scandal earlier this season, Tennessee finally seems to be playing up to their potential on a consistent basis. Against a depleted Michigan St. team, there's no reason the Vols can't set a new school mark by reaching their first Final Four.

2) Biggest Loser - Cinderella's Ball
-Many fans across the country were hoping that at least one of the 3 remaining Cinderella's (Cornell, St. Mary's, or Northern Iowa) would win one more game to make the Elite 8. Alas, the prince turned back into a frog! While Cornell never looked the part on Thursday, it seemed Northern Iowa or St. Mary's would at least have a better chance. But, St. Mary's seemed like they were down 30 before the game even started. And the most disappointing, Northern Iowa, had a 7 point halftime lead, but then didn't hit from the field in the last 10 minutes against Michigan St. If the current trends continue, it won't take long for another Cinderella to make it to the Final Four, just not this year.

3) Best Performance - Tom Izzo
-A lot of the credit for stopping Northern Iowa's run has to go to Tom Izzo. Playing without Kalin Lucas, the Spartans seemingly didn't miss a beat. There second half performance was absolutely clinical in every aspect of the game (shooting, passing, defense, and on and on). It's almost like Tom Izzo could take 5 guys from a racquetball class at Michigan St and still make the Final Four. Unfortunately for Izzo, he's like that drunk Uncle who makes the grand appearance at your family reunion. Sure, everyone notices how he got there, but he usually makes a quiet exit on the big stage. And for Michigan St., even if they make it to Indy, the odds aren't in their favor of going further.

4) Best Game - Tennessee 76 Ohio State 73
-It was the closest, most dramatic game of the night. But, watching it last night, it never seemed like the game had a rhythm because of over-officiating. A lot of touch fouls on dunks and reach-ins ground the game to a halt. But, give credit to Tennessee for dominating the offensive glass and making life difficult for Ohio State's supporting cast.

5) Biggest Escape - The Right Half of the Bracket
-After seeing Ohio State and Syracuse, the two best teams in the Midwest and West regions, go down in flames, I don't think anybody left on the right side of the bracket (UK, WVU, Baylor, Duke) would be fearful of any team on the other side of the bracket. Except for maybe Kansas State, would either of those 4 teams fear Michigan St. without their best player, or Tennessee or Butler making their first Final Four? Yeah, I thought not. This could be one of those years where one of the National Semifinals is the de facto title game.

6) Biggest Choke Job - Thad Matta
-For years, I've doubted Thad Matta's in-game coaching skills. Sure, the guy is an outstanding recruiter, but his adjustments to the flow of the game have been erratic at best. Take into account when he was at Xavier and made the Elite 8 in 2004. Matta allowed his best player, Anthony Myles, to foul out with over 12 minutes left in the 2nd half, ultimately losing by 3 to Duke. Last night, Matta had several opportunities to call a timeout in the final 40 seconds, either to settle his team, or set up his defense. Instead, after an Evan Turner 3 with 40 seconds left, Tennessee scored the game's last 4 points while Ohio State couldn't find a good look at the rim with two hands and a flashlight. Until Matta gets more in tune with necessary in-game coaching, it will be difficult for the Buckeyes to break through on the national stage.

7) Highlight of the Day - Final 40 Seconds of Tenn/OSU
-Speaking of which, here's those last 40 seconds! Sorry for the quality, but it's the best I can do on a Saturday morning. Notice at the end of the game, much to BuckNuts chagrin, Evan Turner was not fouled by J.P. Prince. Also, going back to Thad Matta...doesn't everyone in the gym know your going to try to get the ball in the hands of Jon Diebler? Evan Turner running to the corner is the best play you can come up with?




8) One Shining Thought - The Worst Final Four Ever?
-Ok, for the last week the country has been reveling in the most parity-filled tournament in our lifetime. All the thrilling games and surprising upsets have been great for the buildup to the Final Four. What people aren't talking about now, is that one of the worst Final Fours in history could be upon us. There are basically 3 types of Final Four:
1) The All-Chalk Special
-This is when the Final Four is made up of all #1s and #2s, maybe a #3 seed just for fun. Sure, it's easy to complain about the lack of upsets, but at least we're getting to see the best teams in the game on the grandest stage competing against each other. Aren't those usually the best games anyway?
2) One Cinderella Makes It
-Another attractive Final Four is when one Cinderella crashes the party. A fresh face nobody expected who can really embrace the underdog role against the long established powers of college hoops. Can Cinderella actually go on to win it all (Villanova in the 80s)? Can Cinderella keep the game within 50 (George Mason a few years ago)? Or anywhere in between, at least it's interesting.

Both of these options provide compelling television. The one that doesn't is behind door #3, where this year's Final Four may be heading

3) The Middle of the Road Final 4
-This is the worst case scenario. No great teams (#1 seeds), but also no Cinderella stories. No historic basketball programs to bring prestige and casual fans, no elite players to get eyeballs to tune in to the games. Just a bunch of eh, that's nice that team finally made it, but I wouldn't watch if they were playing in my backyard. Consider this scenario this weekend, let's say Tennessee, Baylor, and West Virginia all pull the upset, heck we'll even throw Kansas State in there too. Isn't that one of the most unappealing Final Fours in history? Who's worth watching? Sure March Madness is fantastic, sure the upsets and buzzer beaters are unbelievable. But, if the Final Four is saturated with teams who don't stoke passion across the country, it could be one to forget.

Saturday PICKS

EAST REGIONAL
Kentucky (1) vs. West Virginia (2)
-As Y1 said yesterday, that West Virginia/Washington game felt like the Heat/Knicks struggles of the 90's in terms of offensive basketball. Still, WVU will have a chance because they play excellent defense. And, Kentucky's youth did finally show in the tourney on Thursday when they basically mailed in the 2nd half against Cornell thinking they'd won. But, in this game, they shouldn't have that problem. If they play a consistent 40 minutes, run it at WVU, and avoid falling in love with the 3 they should win. Against UK's defense, the loss of Truck Bryant will finally affect the Mountaineers.
Pick: Kentucky


WEST REGIONAL

Kansas St. (2) vs. Butler (5)
-Although Butler was ranked in the Top 20 basically all season, they are the last mid-major left. So, all of the pressure of Cinderella, and the chance to go home to Indy for the Final 4 will be on their shoulders. Usually Cinderella is the team who can play without anything to lose, but I don't think that's the case. Plus, I don't think K-State's backcourt of Pullen and Clemente have ever felt pressure...they have ice water in their veins. Even after a grueling double OT win, K-State simply has too much talent and athleticism. Their stifling defense will lead the way, don't be surprised if Butler struggles to crack 50 points.
Pick: K-State


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