Friday, March 12, 2010

This Week In Baseball 3/12/10 - What I Learned From FantasyLand

Our first installment of RSS' This Week In Baseball (original name, I know, give me some time) involves our recently completed fantasy draft that took place this week. I'm no fantasy geek, in fact, it's my lifelong ambition to destroy moneyball, but fantasy baseball can give you insight into what might happen in the coming season. Willy Yoder's Fantasy League is perhaps the toughest on the globe, and it takes a masterful draft to even put yourself in contention for the win. I'll make sure I gloat about my win in this space, or never mention it again. Here's what I learned from FantasyLand...

Hanley Ramirez > Albert Pujols?
-Yes, Hanley Ramirez was picked 1st over Albert Pujols. Much like the Saints drafting Reggie Bush, I was lucky enough to be in the 2 slot to pick up the Cards slugger. But, it begs the question, could the Marlins SS be the best player in the game? He came in 2nd in the NL MVP to Pujols and led the league in batting average while having over 100 runs and 100 RBIs. Ramirez doesn't have the power numbers of course, but he is just as talented as Pujols (plus he's 4 years younger). Who would you take if you were building a team? Most would assume Pujols is the easy answer, but it might not be so cut and dry. Ramirez might be the most unassuming superstar in sports, will this be the year he finally gets the national recognition he deserves?

A Young Man's Game
-Baseball might be blessed with the best crop of young talent that has graced the game in ages. The names in the 1st Round of our draft:
Ramirez, Pujols, Braun, A-Rod, Wright, Howard, Utley, Mauer, Fielder, Kemp, Tulowitzki, Longoria
Only 2 of those guys, A-Rod and Utley, are over 30 years old. 7 of them are 26 or younger. Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore, and Joey Votto are all highly drafted young stars that lead their team offensively. Add to these established stars the likes of Matt Wieters in Baltimore and Stephen Strasburg in Washington (along with Willy's boy crush Bryce Harper) and the future is bright for the post-steroid era.

Young Gun I'm Juiced About Drafting - Jay Bruce (Reds OF Pick 119) - Bruce is the one prospect that has Reds fans have swooned over for years as the cornerstone to their hopeful renaissance. Bruce missed much of last season with a wrist injury, but could be in for a breakout season in Cincy. With a strong, young nucelus, the Reds are a sleeper team in a weaker NL Central.

Fallen Stars
-On the other end of the spectrum are the big names that have fallen off the radar. Not even 2 years ago, these guys would be guaranteed top picks. Now, they're low to mid round selections either trying to bounce back from injury, old age, steroid controversy, or poor form:
Manny Ramirez - Pick 72
Carlos Zambrano - Pick 95
Jake Peavy - Pick 96
Alfonso Soriano - Pick 98
Brandon Webb - Pick 143
Vladimir Guerrero - Pick 170
Joba Chamberlain - Pick 187
Francisco Liriano - Pick 229
Todd Helton - Pick 246
The surprise is the sheer number of big names that have low value entering 2010. Webb and Peavy especially were at the top of the NL before their injury woes. Soriano's move to Chicago hasn't been an overwhelming success, but at least it's gone better than Milton Bradley's tenure. One name to watch from this list will be Vlad Guerrero, who might be energized playing in hitter-friendly Texas for a team that could challenge Anaheim out west.
Old Geezer I'm Juiced About Drafting - David Oritz (DH Boston Pick 215), hey we've seen sluggers with giant heads succeed at old age before, right? Oh yea, that steroid thing... hmmm. And yes, I despise Papi as a Yankees fan (hopefully that doesn't ruin my readership), but his 09 numbers were slightly up vs his 08 numbers even with the steroid controversy. He had better numbers across the board after the All-Star Break last year, and maybe being removed from the steroid controversy can help him loosen up and perform on the field.

The Closer
Each week, I'll try to close with one big picture thought for the national pastime. And this week involves FantasyLand and the proposed floating realignment that was mentioned by Tom Verducci and others. This plan would have teams float from division to division on a yearly basis. There would be no set size for divisions, interleague play might run rampant, and it would be basically a giant clusterf&%#. Basically, rebuilding teams could be paired with Boston and New York or other big market teams to sell tickets and not worry about contending while putting young teams on the field.
In theory, the idea is good. And, at least it shows that baseball is trying. But isn't it just another example of favoring the rich and punishing the poor? Why not just blatantly feed the Yanks and Sawks cupcake after cupcake and give them a golden ticket to the postseason? Purists and folks that favor common sense are lambasting the idea as terrible, which it is, but I'm intrigued by realignment possibilities...

The Yoder Plan
-If we want radical realignment, The Yoder Plan is the way to go. Here's the basics:
*2 5 Team Premier Divisions based on revenue generated and season records over the past 5 years, I'm thinking NYY, NYM, BOS, PHI, DET & LAD, LAA, STL, CHC, MIN
*The other 20 teams are broken up into 4 5 team divisions based on geography, season records, and revenue generated and balanced so that penny-pinchers like PIT, FLA, and KC don't end up in the same division.
*All division winners make the playoffs. The 2nd/3rd place teams play-in from each Prem Division and the Prem teams are seeded in the 8 team tournament. The Top 2 teams that make the playoffs from the lower divisions replace the bottom teams from the Premier divisions. You get the best teams in the playoffs, and everybody still has a chance to win it all.
-To me, this system would be insanely cool. You involve a promotion/relegation system that is so popular around the world, give small market teams a much better chance to get into the playoffs, and develop rivalries and intrigue amongst the elite teams. The top teams all have a very good chance to get in the playoffs, and you can even have a David/Goliath possibility in the 1st Round of the Playoffs. You can keep the AL and NL intact if you'd like or go in another direction. Sure, it's FantasyLand, but at least it's not coming from this guy...
So there you have it, our next installment will be our AL Over/Under Picks for the coming season, until next time, in the words of the great Joe Nuxhall, we'll be rounding third and heading for home...

2 comments:

Brother Yohey said...

Your response to Verducci's option: "But isn't it just another example of favoring the rich and punishing the poor? Why not just blatantly feed the Yanks and Sawks cupcake after cupcake and give them a golden ticket to the postseason?"

So guaranteeing that 6 of the 10 "Premier Teams" make the postseason isn't favoring the rich and punishing the poor? Per my research, of the past 10 WS games, 9 teams who took part in those games would qualify for the "poor" divisions. 4 of the 9 have won. I am against all forms of re-alignment and think you shouldn't mess with baseball as it is.

Mr. Yoder I said...

You're right... I toyed with how to allocate playoff spots and I switched it back to what I had originally. The 2nd/3rd Premier division sides play in to get in with the 6 Division winners.

This system makes the rich teams compete against each other to get into the playoffs, not rack up victories against weaker teams. The teams from the lower divisions have a better chance in this system to make the playoffs because they aren't competing against the elite teams.
Here's how it would have looked in 2009:

LAA and NYY Premier Div Champs
Bos/Phi and LAD/StL Play In... let's say Bos and LAD win
4 Lower Div winners: COL, TEX, SF, DET

To me, that's a much more compelling playoff system than seeing the same teams over and over. The Mets and Cubs go down while Colorado and SF come up.